Monitoring Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s foreign travels is like journeying around the globe, while glued to television at home. We saw him in Fortaleza (Brazil) attending the BRICS summit and in Fiji, where no Indian prime minister had gone in 33 years; in Sydney and Seychelles; in Mongolia and Mauritius; and in Riyadh and Tehran. His well-choreographed journeys on Air India One have demonstrated that we live – more and more – in a globalised world.

Setting the Stage

India has produced several ‘foreign policy PMs’: Jawaharlal Nehru, who left an indelible imprint and legacy; Indira Gandhi, who blended Nehru’s idealistic vision with realpolitik; Narasimha Rao, who adopted policy to cope with the post-Cold War world; and Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who made India a nuclear weapons state. Modi gives the impression that he aspires to be a great foreign policy PM, perhaps greater than them all! How has he performed so far?

Management of foreign relations is a complex business. Results take a long time to materialise. Yet scholars have rushed to produce tomes on Modi’s foreign policy even before his first in office was over. Guarding against such unseemly haste is advisable. Another note of caution: in today’s politically charged atmosphere, one needs a non-partisan perch from where to evaluate foreign policy, thus avoiding the perils of one-sided judgment.

Modi Doctrine?

According to Lord Palmerstone, a nation has neither “eternal allies” nor “perpetual enemies”. It has only “eternal and perpetual” interests. Foreign policy, a medium to promote national interest, is moulded by the interplay of national, regional and global factors. In its 2014 election manifesto, the Bharatiya Janata Party committed itself to ensuring that “a resurgent India” got its “rightful place in the comity of nations and international institutions.” It articulated a vision “to fundamentally reboot and reorient the foreign policy goals, content and process.” Judging by Modi government’s record so far, it seems that the prime minister understands foreign policy well and enjoys being the nation’s chief diplomat.

The past two years indicate that Modi’s external policy has five key elements:

1. i) India plans to be ‘a leading power’ rather than a mere ‘balancing power’
2. ii) diplomacy should be deployed to accelerate the nation’s socio-economic transformation

iii) South Block should have a 360^° global view and matching ability to influence the world through a web of international friendships and a balance of power favourable to India

1. iv) while increasing defense capability and economic strength, India must also utilise its abundant soft power
2. v) nurturing ties with the Indian diaspora and helping Indians in distress abroad is a priority.

In adopting this approach, Modi has borrowed from his predecessors, especially Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. After all, the basic foreign policy framework remains unchanged. But variations through re-prioritisation, emphasis and nuance, sharper communication, strategic boldness, vigour and activism can hardly be ignored.

Our Neighbours

At its swearing-in ceremony, the Modi government hosted the leaders of South Asia (and Mauritius). It was a historic occasion that earned much approbation.  The excellent beginning was followed by another notable feat. Many of the previous prime ministers had been criticized for not visiting neighboring countries adequately. Modi visited all SAARC countries, except Maldives, in his first 19 months. The list includes Pakistan, which his predecessor could not visit even once during his 10-year tenure.

An objective view suggests that India’s relations with Bhutan and Afghanistan are as good as before and decidedly better concerning Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Myanmar, though not a SAARC member, is a neighbour of considerable strategic significance. It needs more attention than it has received so far. Other neighbours have been problematic. The flip-flops on Pakistan have brought much criticism. A serious impasse marks this relationship today.

Despite India’s generosity and resilience, Nepal has proved to be an unusually difficult partner, unmindful that its interests are inextricably linked with India. Maldives, soft on fundamentalist tendencies and partisan to China, is distancing itself due to its misguided policy. SAARC, the main vehicle for regional integration, remains stalled.

In this context, a new critical factor undoubtedly is China’s persistent endeavour to expand its strategic footprint in South Asia, to India’s disadvantage. How to fashion an effective response remains a major challenge for policymakers. Modi government’s performance will be watched closely on this score.

Major Powers

India favours a multi-polar world and a multi-polar Asia. It sees a significant role for itself at the High Table. The government has invested heavily in cultivating ties with all major powers, respecting India’s strategic and economic compulsions.

Modi has already visited the US thrice and will go there again in June 2016. Obama became the first US president to be the chief guest at the Republic Day celebrations in 2015. The ‘plateau’ that marked the US-India relationship in the last two years of Manmohan Singh’s term has disappeared. Washington and New Delhi are on the same page on several – but not all – issues. New Delhi now has to prepare for a new American president. The equation with Russia has remained cordial and cooperative, despite reports of some mutual distrust and disappointment with an economic relationship that underperforms.

Exchange of visits between Indian and European leaders was a regular affair before, but the pace seems to have increased. India has undertaken focused cultivation of ties with France, Germany and UK. The India-EU summit was held after a 4-year gap, though the long-pending FTA could still not be finalized.

India-Japan relations witnessed renewed warmth and further consolidation, with Tokyo’s assurance to invest $35 billion in India’s infrastructure projects and to enhance defense cooperation. Manmohan Singh laid the foundations for this vital relationship to which Modi has added new dimensions.

Relations with China have always been complex. Visits by Xi Jinping to India and Modi’s visit to China underscored the importance they attach to the bilateral relationship. President Pranab Mukherjee has just become the latest VVIP to visit China. Broadly speaking, economic complementarity draws the two countries closer together, while political and strategic divergences pull them apart. India needs Chinese investment, China needs India’s market; but neither seems to agree on sensitive political issues (viz. border question, terrorism, Pakistan, India’s bid for membership of UN Security Council, Nuclear Suppliers Group etc). Yet, they find ways to work together on numerous platforms such as RIC, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and BRICS. The future will show how the three defining characteristics – cooperation, competition and desire to avoid confrontation – shape this relationship that will determine Asia’s destiny.

Other Regions

India switched from the Look East Policy to Act East Policy, with a promise to widen the policy’s scope and focus on action. Some of the initial excitement has diminished now, but the government can make a difference if it secures the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement soon, operationalise its one billion dollar fund for new connectivity projects with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), and generally help the region to maintain peace and security, despite China’s assertive behavior in the South China Sea.

In West Asia, South Block has watched warily as the Arab Spring went astray, creating disastrous consequences, especially in Libya, Syria and Yemen. India remains concerned about protecting its interests – investment flows, energy security, and the diaspora. The PM’s visits to United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Iran were designed to secure multiple objectives while also assisting the region to maintain a much-needed equilibrium. All the five countries of Central Asia — namely Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan — were visited by Modi in July 2015, but very little is known about progress in implementing the agreements signed there.

Africa received unprecedented attention as India hosted the Third India-Africa Forum Summit last year, which was attended by all 54 countries. This was different from the previous two summits (in 2008 and 2011) for which only about 15 countries had been invited. Six months later, India’s top trio – President, Vice President and Prime Minister – are preparing to undertake their separate African safaris that may cover 10 important countries. This would be India’s spectacular outreach to Africa. Through a well-calibrated Indian Ocean policy, the government has also been endeavouring to strengthen linkages with strategically vital island states like Mauritius and Seychelles, and empower the Indian Ocean Rim Association. Developing full potential of the Blue Economy is now becoming a new priority.

Conclusion

Expert opinions vary on the foreign policy record so far. A former foreign secretary opined that foreign policy was losing momentum, stressing “image must serve substance.” In a rather subjective assessment, an academic demolished Modi’s South Asia policy, advising Delhi not to “behave like the Modern-day Raj.” A senior journalist highlighted that Modi’s activism had put the Ministry of External Affairs “in the shade.”

As our foregoing analysis shows clearly, the Modi government has done unexpectedly well in the domain of foreign policy and diplomacy, but it has experienced some setbacks and disappointments too. By overcoming them, addressing new challenges pragmatically, and concentrating on delivery, the government can ensure much better policy results in the future.