The fourth phase of Lok Sabha polls today will see voting in five constituencies in Bihar. These constituencies are spread across three different regions of the state: Begusarai (Kosi region), Darbhanga, Samastipur and Ujiarpur (Mithilanchal region) and Munger (Magadh region).

The most-talked-about face-off is that of Begusarai, which has garnered primetime news and headlines owing to Kanhiya Kumar’s entry.

First a look at some data from Begusarai.

1. Total voters: 19.4 lakh
2. Male voters: 10.3 lakh
3. Female voters: 9.08 lakh
4. Assembly segments: Matihani (JD-U), Sahebpur Kamal (RJD), Teghra–Barauni (RJD) Begusarai (Congress), Cheria Bariarpur ( JD- U), Bachhwara (Congress) and Bakhri (RJD)
5. Lok Sabha polls 2014: Bhola Singh (BJP) got 4, 28, 227 votes and defeated Tanveer Hasan (RJD) who got 3,69,892 votes. Rajendra Singh (CPI) was at third position with 1,92, 639 votes
6. Victory margin: 58, 335 votes
7. 2019 key contenders: Giriraj Singh ( BJP), Tanveer Hasan ( RJD) and Kanhaiya Kumar (CPI)

Last week, Begusarai observed the death anniversary of its most famous son in modern times: poet and writer Ramdhari Singh Dinkar. The eclectic nature of his literary legacy can be put to use for different streams of thought. And, so, the key contending parties in the Lok Sabha battle for the constituency invoked the poet to articulate their ideological tilt — the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) for its nationalistic pitch, the Rashtriya Janta Dal (RJD) for its Lohiaite socialist advocacy and the Communist Party of India (CPI) for its Left activism. That’s the limited role that ideology has in the battle for Begusarai: confined to rhetorical flourishes.

Far from the clash of ideas that the national media is trying to project, the three-way fight — Giriraj Singh (BJP)-Tanveer Hasan(RJD)- Kanhaiya Kumar (CPI) — will be decided by the arithmetic of identity politics and social group consolidation. The social calculus of the Begusarai contest, much to the disappointment of Delhi media, has no room for ideological grandeur.

Begusarai is one of the very few constituencies in Bihar where the upper caste in the electorate has the numerical edge. That has meant that the highly influential upper caste Bhumihars hold the key to the electoral fortunes of the candidates in Begusarai: a constituency that was reshaped after the 2008 delimitation. Out of the current seven Assembly segments of Begusarai parliamentary constituency, five were once part of the erstwhile Balia seat (Bachhwara, Teghra, Cheria Bariarpur, and Bakhri and Sahebpur Kamal). That means only two segments — Begusarai and Matihani — were part of the pre-delimitation Begusarai constituency.

This has made the constituency a relatively new political-geographical entity to size up. In terms of its social demography, there are many estimates, but all clearly put Bhumihars way ahead as the most significant part of social groups in the constituency: Bhumihars: 19-21  per cent, Muslims: 15-16 per cent, Yadavs: 11-13 per cent and Kurmis: 7-8 per cent. Other groups are non-Bhumihar upper castes (Brahmins, Rajputs and Kayasthas), Baniyas and other OBCs, Dalits and Mahadalits.

Taking into account the pre-delimitation history of the constituency, an overwhelming majority of Lok Sabha Members of Parliament from here have been from the influential Bhumihar caste.

Social configuration is very much in play in the 2019 contest too. Two prime contenders — Giriraj Singh (BJP) and Kanhaiya Kumar (CPI) —  are Bhumihars, while the RJD has chosen to field Tanveer Hasan, who comes from the second-most populous social group in the constituency, Muslims.

Despite Kanhaiya’s ideological posturing, much to the delight of the narrative-hunting national media, the lure of readymade support from a section of Bhumihars and a chance to sneak into RJD’s famed Muslim-Yadav vote may have clearly dictated his choice of Begusarai for his electoral debut.

Besides caste identity, Kanhaiya has been keen on projecting himself as the son of the soil (neta nahi, beta). He has targeted Giriraj Singh, current Union Minister of State, for being an outsider. Singh is a native of Barahiya in Lakhisarai district of Bihar.

Apart from the caste factor, the former Jawaharlal Nehru University Students Union (JNUSU) leader also hopes to gain from the traditional support base for Communists in some parts of the constituency. However, such support is limited to certain parts of the Begusarai constituency. Even in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, Rajendra Singh of CPI could manage 1,92, 639 votes while coming third in the race. The winner, late Bhola Singh of the BJP, was also once a CPI leader.

What, however, must be remembered, is that the sobriquet of Begusarai being Leningrad of Bihar was more applicable to the Balia Lok Sabha seat (five of whose Assembly segments, as mentioned earlier, are now part of the Begusarai constituency). The erstwhile Balia seat elected four CPI members of Parliament in nine Lok Sabha polls held between 1977 and 2008 (the year of delimitation) and placed it in the second position in most of the remaining polls. Begusarai, the pre-delimitation constituency, last elected a CPI member of Parliament in 1967.

It’s also misleading to see the nature of Communist politics in Begusarai, particularly its support among a section of the upper caste landed Bhumihars, from the prism of Left-wing politics in the rest of the country. In the current media discourse, there has been little effort to distinguish and understand this.

In the twentieth century, the reasons for the popularity of a stream of Communist movement among Bhumihars in areas like Begusarai were quite different from what is being talked about. The support was for a rapidly rising economic and social force seeking organisational apparatus to protect its prosperity and to retrieve its old, high position in the social hierarchy. In The Republic of Bihar (Penguin, 1992), scholar Arvind N Das reflects on the strands of this strange association.“There grew sections of a substantial tenantry corresponding to the rich and middle peasantry, a veritable, if embryonic, kulak class. They resented having  been pushed down in the ritual hierarchy into positions not at all commensurate with their growing wealth. Many of this group came from the de-Brahmanized Bhumihar caste. They first started social reform movements in order to attain appropriate ritual status, but soon these grew into formidable anti- zaminadari organisations culminating in the 1930s in the Kisan Sabha under the leadership of the crusty radical sanyasi , Swami Sahajanand Sarswati.  The movement received guarded and occasional support from some Congressmen, but was joined more enthusiastically by Communist Party of India ( CPI) led by the activist Karyanand Sharma,” Das writes.

Clearly, the reasons for the support that CPI got from Bhumihars of this region were far different, in both pre-Independence and post-Independence periods, from what the general discourse on Left-wing politics would assume.

Anyway both the son of soil card and Bhumihar caste identity would ensure only a section of support from Bhumihars for Kanhaiya. Besides the JNU sloganeering controversy, the dominant caste group in the region is scrutinising him for the confusing signals they are getting. A case in point is a Bhumihar youth recently asking him why he didn’t stand in solidarity with Bhumihars on the question of reservation for the general category on an economic basis and why he didn’t raise his voice when upper caste students where lathi-charged while agitating for this demand.

The question becomes relevant in the context of the fact that Kanhaiya is seen by a section as seeking sympathy for his struggle against his family’s poverty. So, if the Left activist circuit and sympathetic media voices in Delhi are so receptive to his struggles even if he is a high caste Bhumihar, how could the case for affirmative action for the poor among the general category be opposed? That’s a query that a section of Bhumihars are posing. Answering this section has been difficult for Kanhaiya, and he will have to rely on the section of Bhumihars who are more inclined to buy his son-of-the-soil pitch.

Aware that he may still get support from a section of Bhumihars on his nativist identity plank, Kanhaiya will need to supplement the loss of a huge chunk of Bhumihar votes to Giriraj. He is seeking to do that by wooing Muslim votes away from Tanveer Hasan, the RJD candidate who fought the 2014 polls well enough to lose by only 58, 335 votes. His bid to split, or even get lion’s share of Muslim vote is being aided by appeals made by celebrities like Bollywood lyricist Javed Akhtar and Shehla Rashid.

Though he has been able to make inroads into a considerable number of young among the Muslim electorate, the traditional RJD voters among the Muslim perceive him as a vote-katua out there to spoil the best chance that Muslims have to wrest the seat under the leadership of Tanveer Hasan. This is the criticism that Tanveer’s supporters, from other sections of RJD’s vote bank, direct against Kanhaiya.

Despite these rival claims, the general tilt of Muslim vote may be a last-minute call made by community leaders after taking into account the comparative strength of Kanhaiya or Tanveer in defeating Giriraj Singh.

The former JNUSU leader has also tried to chase the most significant constituent of RJD support base: the Yadav vote. Even CPI had to officially distance itself from Kanhaiya’s campaign speech in support of Madhepura sitting MP Pappu Yadav, who had been accused and jailed for murdering SFI and CPI (M) leader Ajit Sarkar before being officially acquitted by the Patna High Court in 2013. Kanhaiya’s move was apparently to attract a section of Yadav votes, though his party was left embarrassed in the process.

There is a perception that BJP’s Giriraj Singh is emerging as the prime claimant on Bhumihar votes and in addition to that he has the support of the NDA ally JD (U), which has influence over  Kurmi votes and two Assembly segments in the constituency. It must be remembered that in 2014 Lok Sabha polls, JD(U) had supported CPI candidate Rajendra Singh. That chunk of JD(U)’s vote base will be with Giriraj and so will be the Dalit supporters of Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP, though Dalit vote bank isn’t large in the constituency.

Managing Bhumihar support would be key to Giriraj’s success, especially when he was seen as a reluctant entrant to Begusarai Lok Sabha race. Keen on seeking re-election from Nawada, he felt let down by party’s decision to shift him to Begusarai. In his campaign, he seems to have made peace with that and though seen as an outsider, he has cited his long association with Begusarai and also his family connection with the place (Begusarai being the home of his maternal grandfather).

As a caste group, there is a strong perception about Bhumihars being upset with the BJP’s denial of their due share in ticket distribution. Suspecting a strong anti-Bhumihar lobby in Bihar BJP, there is a resentment among caste leaders that the party gave only one ticket to a Bhumihar (in Begusarai), while the remaining two Bhumihar candidates fielded by NDA have been on tickets of NDA allies- Lallan Singh (JD-U,Munger) and Chandan Kumar (LJP, Nawada).

It may work both ways in Begusarai — either BJP-supporting Bhumihar voters get consolidated strongly behind Giriraj Singh to send a strong message of their strength to the party or express their resentment against the party by cold-shouldering its candidate in Begusarai. A large part of Giriraj’s battle is ensuring that Bhumihars prefer the former response.

In his bid to expand that support, Giriraj could also bank on the slew of infrastructural development activities that both the central government and state governments are credited for – four-lane road construction, the revival of fertilizer plant and improved power supply. Besides these, the beneficiaries of central government schemes like Ujjawala Yojna and Ayushman  Bharat Yojna can bring their own support to Giriraj’s candidature. The popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s anti-terror claims and nationalist pitch may cut across different groups, though its chances seem limited by identity consolidation across different voting groups.

Whoever emerges as the winner in this close triangular contest, it has become increasingly clear that media houses would read the result with a template that is irrelevant to the fight here. Ideologies, for all the eyeballs they are grabbing, will not decide Begusarai polls – managing identities will. But maybe such banal realities of electoral politics don’t make for a great news copy or media narrative.