‘Ladki Bahin success, OBC consolidation’: Shinde camp settles Sena vs Sena debate

Winning at least 54 of the 81 seats it contested in Maharashtra, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena seems to have settled the long-standing debate around who carries the legacy of the undivided Sena.

The party won 38 of the 49 seats it contested directly against the Shiv Sena (UBT), despite a high-decibel poll campaign that saw the Shiv Sena (UBT) target the Shinde camp with terms like “gaddar”, “khoke sarkar”, and “pannas khoke”. It came just months after the Mahayuti had managed to win only 17 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

Meanwhile, the Sena (UBT), which could secure victories in only 20 of the 97 seats it contested, is now raising questions about Shinde’s position. Shinde had earlier become the chief minister despite his faction being the junior coalition partner – a situation that’s likely to change with the BJP leading in 133 out of the 148 seats it contested in a historic mandate in the western state.

At the time of writing this report, results were still being counted in 17 seats across Maharashtra, including three contested by the Shinde-led Sena.

The major wins, the big losers

In his own constituency of Kopari Pachpakhadi, Eknath Shinde secured a landslide victory, defeating Kedar Dighe of Shiv Sena (UBT) by a margin of over 1.2 lakh votes.

Sena candidates registered several significant victories across Mumbai, Thane, north Maharashtra, Marathwada, Konkan, Vidarbha, and Western Maharashtra. These included Chandrakant Sonawane’s victory in Chopra, defeating Prabhakar Sonawane by 23,703 votes, and Kishore Appa Patil’s 36,514-vote margin over Vaishalitai Suryavanshi in Pachora. Sanjay Gaikwad narrowly won Buldhana by 841 votes while Ranjana Jadhav secured Kannad with a margin of 27,984 votes. Ramesh Bornare claimed Vaijapur with 40,841 votes.

In Kalyan West, Vishwanath Bhoir defeated Sachin Basare by 42,454 votes while in Ambernath, Balaji Kinikar secured a 51,375 -vote edge over Rajesh Wankhede. Rajesh More's victory in Kalyan Rural was particularly significant, with a margin of 66,396 votes. Pratap Sarnaik triumphed in Ovala Majiwada with a 1,08,158-vote lead over Naresh Manera. Prakash Surve also had a strong show in Magathane, winning by 58,164 votes.

Pradeep Jaiswal of Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) secured a victory in Aurangabad Central, defeating Shiv Sena (UBT) candidate Dr Balasaheb Thorat with a margin of 48,361 votes. In Nanded North, Balaji Kalayankar, also from Shinde’s faction, triumphed over Sena (UBT) candidate Sangita Patil with an impressive 60,478 -vote lead.

Other victories included Dadaji Bhuse's 1,06,606-vote win in Malegaon and Ashok Patil’s narrow 6,764-vote win in Bhandup (West). In Chembur, Tukaram Kate won by 10,711 votes, while Mangesh Kudalkar secured a 4,187-vote victory in Kurla. Rural constituencies also saw significant wins, such as Mahendra Thorve’s 5,694-vote victory in Karjat and Shamburaj Desai's win in Patan by 34,824 votes.

In the constituencies of Konkan region, Uday Samant triumphed in Ratnagiri with a 41,590-vote lead, and Deepak Kesarkar won Sawantwadi by 39,899 votes. Nilesh Rane, elder son of Narayan Rane who recently joined Shiv Sena won in Kudal by defeating Shiv Sena (UBT)’s Vaibhav Naik by 8,176 votes. In Dapoli, Yogesh Kadam emerged victorious, defeating Sanjay Kadam by a margin of 24,093 votes. Meanwhile, in Rajapur, Kiran Samant secured a win, defeating Rajan Salvi by 19,677 votes. In Mahad, Bharat Gogawale defeated Snehal Jagtap with a margin of 26,210 votes

From the Sena (UBT) camp, Kailash Ghadge Patil emerged as the biggest winner in contests against the Sena, defeating Ajit Pinge in Osmanabad with a margin of 36,566 votes. The slimmest margin in a direct contest was in Mahim, where Mahesh Sawant defeated Sena’s Sada Sarvankar with a margin of 1,316 votes. 

‘Personal attacks’

Dasrath Patil, Shiv Sena’s deputy leader in the assembly, outlined several key factors behind his party’s performance. 

“Shinde sahab’s ground-level approach and his firm command over the organisation played a crucial role in securing our position, especially in constituencies where we had direct competition with Shiv Sena (UBT). Additionally, the consolidation of OBC votes in favour of our alliance, driven by Jarange Patil’s selective targeting of Devendra Fadnavis, gave us a significant advantage. The success of the Ladki Bahin Yojna also helped garner strong support from women voters. While Uddhav Thackeray spent his time labelling Shinde sahab a ‘gaddaar’ and engaging in personal attacks, Shinde was focused on promoting welfare schemes on the ground. He ensured that the people benefited directly from these initiatives, and the results speak for themselves.”

Patil also highlighted another crucial shift. “Unlike the Lok Sabha elections, the Muslim vote did not overwhelmingly support the MVA this time. Our party and alliance partners managed to garner Muslim votes this time, especially among women, which also helped us in securing the edge over MVA.”

Sena spokesperson Manisha Kayande said, “For the past two-and-a-half years, leaders from Shiv Sena (UBT) have branded us as traitors…after failing in legal battles, they claimed they would take the fight to the people’s court, but even there, they were defeated. It is now abundantly clear that Eknath Shinde is the true heir of Shiv Sena and the true disciple of Balasaheb Thackeray.”

Meanwhile, at a press conference at his residence Matoshree in the evening, Uddhav Thackeray said the results paint a “frightening picture”. “You (Shinde) have to work under (Devendra) Fadnavis. First figure out which bungalow you will get,” Thackeray said.

“The figures we’re seeing suggest that this government doesn't need anyone’s permission to pass bills. A year and a half ago, BJP president JP Nadda said that only one party will remain, and there will be 'one nation, one election, one party.’”

“We’ve travelled across the state and still can’t understand why people voted for the Mahayuti. Is it because of falling soybean prices? Or because industries are leaving Maharashtra for Gujarat? Or because women feel unsafe in this state? We’re still trying to figure out the reasons behind this so-called wave. In the coming days, we will look for the real causes of this result.”

“To the people of Maharashtra, I want to say don’t be disheartened. Some are claiming this is the victory of EVMs, and maybe that’s true. If the people of Maharashtra have accepted this result, then there’s nothing more to say. But if there are those who haven’t, I want them to know that we will continue to fight for the betterment of Maharashtra. I am with you all, always.”

Mumbai-based political analyst Harish Kerazarkar said Uddhav Thackeray focused on personal attacks against Eknath Shinde, “believing that such tactics would garner sympathy votes”. 

“The sympathy effect was temporary, peaking during the Lok Sabha elections, but Thackeray persisted with the same approach, ultimately leading to his defeat. In contrast, Shinde remained focused on promoting the welfare schemes initiated by the government. He strengthened his organisation, ensured his MLAs received their fair share of funds, and earned the respect of even Shiv Sena (UBT) cadres. While Shinde may never fully inherit the Thackeray family legacy, his victory in this election has undeniably positioned him as the true heir to Balasaheb Thackeray's Shiv Sena. As time goes on, more and more cadres from Shiv Sena (UBT) will likely join his ranks.”

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