Science fiction tells us of a future in which there will be flying cars, snazzy outfits and intergalactic missions, but if present-day data projections are to be believed, the times ahead are likely to be grim, grimy and congested. In a report that tries to predict the future by looking at statistics surrounding air pollution today, the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) highlighted the economic effects of air pollution and offered worrying projections for 2060.

Last month, an air quality report by the World Health Organisation revealed that half of the world’s 20 most polluted cities are in India. Delhi, which was  declared as the world’s most polluted city in 2014 by the WHO itself, dropped to the 11^th position in the list. Zabul in Iran was declared the most polluted city in the world, followed by Gwalior and Allahabad.

Ignored for years, it was the WHO’s 2014 report that made us sit up and since then, the debate around air pollution has got fiercer with detailed studies and investigative reports that have analysed the causes behind high pollution levels in Delhi and other Indian cities. The Indian Express did two investigative series (“Death by Breath” and “Leave Delhi”), which contained in-depth reports on Delhi’s polluted air and its disastrous health impact on citizens especially children.

Earlier this month, a study by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology revealed that life expectancy drops by 6.4 years in Delhi all because of its polluted air. In this context, the OECD report assumes critical significance as it a shows just how dire a problem outdoor air pollution really is and how this problem is not going to away. By 2060, it could cause six to nine million premature deaths a year and cost one per cent of the global GDP.

According to the report, India, China, Korea and Central Asian countries will be the most affected by air pollution as rising populations and congested cities will lead to exposure to more power plant emissions and traffic exhaust. In 2010, there were 508 deaths caused by outdoor air pollution, per million people in India. In 2060, this figure is likely to range from 945 to 2039 per million. In China’s case, it will range from 1563 to 2052 deaths per million in 2060. These are significant increases from the 2010 figure.

Even Japan and Korea will see huge increases in premature deaths due to air pollution.

The number of cases of bronchitis is projected to increase substantially, going from 12 to 36 million new cases per year for children aged 6 to 12, and from 3.5 to 10 million cases for adults.

After the Supreme Court ordered public transport vehicles in Delhi to switch to compressed natural gas, the All India Institute of Medical Science (AIIMS) reported a dip in cases till 2007, but it registered a 283 percent rise in respiratory ailments in the subsequent six years — from 9,831 cases in 2008-09 to 37,669 cases in 2014-15.

The OECD projections are further given credence by a Lancet study, conducted with data from 188 countries, which claims that air pollution is the third largest cause for stroke, accounting for almost 30 per cent of the global stroke burden. In India, more than 1.2 million people were estimated to suffer strokes every year, making it the leading cause of death and disability in rural India. Globally, about 15 million people suffer strokes every year, of which nearly six million die and five million are left disabled, including loss of vision or speech, paralysis and confusion.

Apart from creating health issues, outdoor air pollution will have an economic impact as well. As the quality of the air becomes worse and worse, there will be reduced labour productivity, more hospital admissions, sick activity days, increased health expenditure and crop yield losses. By 2060, lost working days at the global level are projected to be around 3.75 billion days.

However, China will suffer much more than India, if the projections are to be believed. There are two reasons for this:

1. Age structure of the population: India has a much younger population and ageing is projected to become a more severe problem in China. This means that the Chinese population structure in the coming decades is more vulnerable to air pollution, which comes with its own domino effect like, for example, higher additional health expenditures for China than India.

2. Savings rate: The savings profile of India is significantly different compared with that of China (current savings and investment rates are substantially larger in China, while in the longer run the opposite is true), which imply a different response to a reduction in income or increased expenditures.

The total annual market costs of outdoor air pollution are projected to rise from 0.3 per cent in 2015 to one per cent by 2060, and the projected annual value of air pollution per capita is set to rise from 470 USD in 2015 to 2770 USD in 2060.

A World Bank study concluded that the combined cost of outdoor and indoor air pollution is the highest burden on India’s economy. It isn’t as though governments are not aware of the problem posed by air pollution. In Delhi, the odd-even experiment was launched in an effort to reduce traffic congestion and to improve air quality, but it wasn’t able to reduce emissions much, as IndiaSpend reported. The cost of taking no action against deteriorating air quality is one that we can ill afford. This is not a metaphor. Mitigating the damage caused by air pollution will cost money, but if India does so, it will far outweigh the health costs that will mount if no action is taken. India could realize an additional benefit of around US $59 billion with a PM10 tax, for instance.

That’s as good reason as any to take a deep breath and work at reducing air pollution.