In an ideal world, two initial rounds in a seven-phased poll may not be seen as making any decisive impact on an election. Uttar Pradesh, however, works according to a logic distinctly unto itself. The first two phases of the state assembly elections are likely to determine the course of the remaining five phases and thereby write the political destiny of India’s most populous state. 

UP is a state where the voter is often guided by considerations of caste, creed, religion and grass root-level equations that prioritise the micro over the macro. What has become visible in the first two phases is the reconsolidation of minorities behind the Samajwadi Party (SP)-Congress alliance. 

Reports reaching Lucknow from the 73 assembly constituencies involved in the first phase and 67 constituencies of the second phase of polling (spread across 26 out of 75 districts) suggest a higher than usual turnout of Muslim voters. It’s a positive signal for the SP-Congress alliance, that was, anyway, designed to attract the bulk of the Muslim vote.

The importance of the Muslim vote in the current election stems from the fact that this group is crucial for the survival of SP, the revival of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and for any sort of rejuvenation for the Congress. For Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), there is a heavy reliance on a split in the Muslim vote between SP and BSP. The results are still a little less than a month away, but it seems BJP’s hopes have been belied so far. The minority vote appears to have gravitated largely in favour of SP-Congress. This could make all the difference.

In the past, SP had done pretty well in these two phases in 2012 when the party grabbed as many as 58 out of the 140 assembly seats. It was followed by BSP, which put up a tally of 39, while BJP trailed behind with just 21. 

Political observers see this year’s high voter turnout in both phases –it touched a record 65-66 per cent – as an indication of an obvious surge for Akhilesh Yadav, who has become something of a youth icon. “Reports reaching here from different constituencies that went to poll during the first and second phase talked about a high turnout of youth as well as Muslim voters , many of whom were vocal enough to express their support for the Akhilesh-Rahul alliance,” claimed a senior SP leader in Lucknow. 

Mayawati’s bid to woo Muslims was demonstrated right from day one, when she decided to field approximately 100 Muslim candidates. Subsequently, she roped in a number of maulanas to issue appeals to Muslims to vote for BSP. These maulanas included some controversial Islamic clerics, who had lost much credibility because of their perennial hobnobbing with different political parties. This didn’t show the BSP strategy in good light. There were similar appeals issued by small-time maulanas, without any profile or clout among Muslims in their locality. 

On the other hand, the Akhilesh-Rahul duo, which has displayed terrific chemistry, delivered ‘subtle’ appears to Muslims and seemed to go a long way in reinforcing the confidence of Muslims. 

So far, BJP’s campaign has not looked beyond Hindutva. Even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi shunned using the communal card or mentioning “Hindus and Muslims”, lumpen elements in party including the saffron-clad Yogi Adityanath and Sakshi Maharaj have left no stone unturned to whip up religious passions. For instance, there was the attempt by several BJP leaders to play up the “exodus of Hindus” from Kairana. However, that got watered down by BJP’s own local MP Hukum Singh, who made it a point to declare that the issue was far from “communal”. Singh told local media very explicitly, “That is not a Hindu-Muslim issue; the well-to-do were running away from Kairana because of being hounded by criminals.” 

Interestingly, it was Hukum Singh who was first to raise the Kairana issue in 2016, but the fallacy in his charge was quickly exposed by the media and this BJP MP himself chose to go on the back foot. Yet, BJP’s national president Amit Shah did not hesitate to make an issue out of Kairana and the exodus that wasn’t in his party’s manifesto for the current election. 

Rival political leaders have all made claims and counter-claims about their party getting the edge in the first two phases of the seven-phased match. Mayawati and her supporters were busy claiming that the larger chunk of Muslims were rallying behind BSP and that this added on to its large base of Dalit votes would enable the party a smooth sail to power. Likewise, BJP too gave the impression that ‘the Modi wave’ that got the part a record win of 73 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 would once again do the magic when the ballot boxes reveal the results. SP and Congress have been touting the success of their alliance.

While we must keep in mind that five crucial phases of polling are left, the first two rounds indicate the tide is in favour of the SP-Congress alliance. What cannot be ruled out is a fractured verdict that could spring a huge surprise. Could there be another marriage of convenience between BJP and BSP (Mayawati insists there is no chance of this and the only reason this idea has been floated is that BJP wants to ride on BSP’s popularity)? After all, there have been three such coalitions in the past. There’s a reason the saying “politics makes strange bedfellows” refuses to wane in popularity.