On Wednesday afternoon, TTV Dinakaran realised he is not having the time of his life. The deputy general secretary of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), accused in a 20-year-old Foreign Exchange Regulation Act (FERA) case, in which a penalty of Rs 28 crore was slapped on him in January, was to arrive at the court of the Additional Chief Metropolitan Magistrate, Economic Offences II in Egmore in Chennai at 3 pm. Dinakaran must have thought arriving before time would impress the judge, S Malarmathy but what followed shocked him.

The early bird got the flak as the judge admonished Dinakaran for entering the court seven minutes before time, telling him bluntly that he has not been called yet. Dinakaran heard her calmly before stepping out and made sure he next entered only when he was asked to at 3 pm.

The last 24 hours have been a reality check for Dinakaran. From the most powerful man in the AIADMK, he now stands isolated, shunned by the same men his aunt gave tickets to, funded election campaigns and even helped build political careers for.

VK Sasikala, who would have heard of her persona non grata status in the AIADMK by now, would be equally shocked at how servile politicians in the AIADMK, encouraged only to prostrate before the big leader, have discovered a word called ‘rebellion’.

The AIADMK under Jayalalithaa was a party like no other. Her party spokesperson, CR Saraswathi, also an actor of some standing, used to describe the AIADMK as a “military force party with one commander, Amma”. Four months after her death, the Jayalalithaa template of AIADMK has also died. In her place are several political pygmies as leaders, with the party and its different factions having no sense of direction and no clear chain of command.

It is obvious that even if the Panneerselvam and Palaniswami factions come together, the AIADMK won’t quite be the same. Its vote share, in the absence of a charismatic leader, is most certain to dip. Under Jayalalithaa, the party had acquired the audacity to contest elections on its own, up against the rainbow coalitions that her bête noire Karunanidhi of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) would try to stitch together. Now the diminished-in-stature AIADMK will have to be more flexible in terms of alliance-making.

Political commentator Sumanth C Raman however, does not see a disintegration of the core AIADMK vote. “A sizeable chunk of the AIADMK vote consists of the anti-DMK vote which includes people who will never side with the DMK. For them, the AIADMK is the only viable alternative. The other chunk is of women who adore Jayalalithaa and they too are unlikely to desert her party totally,” says Raman. Add to the mix, voters who are die-hard MGR fans and those who have been beneficiaries of Jayalalithaa’s welfare agenda and you get an AIADMK vote bank that is unlikely to disappear into thin air.

It would be imprudent to apply the same rules of doing politics in any other state in India to Tamil Nadu. This land is a different ballgame. The Dravidian parties succeeded in Tamil Nadu, riding on the decline of the Congress party in the 1960s, the anti-Hindi agitation and pride in Tamil nationalism.

The national parties have been reduced to a supporting cast over the years, their minuscule vote share making little difference to the outcome of elections in the state. And the DMK and the AIADMK have in most elections, been voted out giving both Dravidian parties a shot at power every five years.

But the prolonged political instability now gives a sense of churning taking place. More so, because the two most towering politicians in Tamil Nadu since 1989 have retired from the political scene, almost at the same time. With Jayalalithaa no more and Karunanidhi not keeping well, the state does not have a pan-Tamil Nadu leader, barring MK Stalin. What Tamil Nadu will get to choose from now are caste leaders, whose domain does not go beyond their district or region.

The changed scenario gives the Congress and the BJP an opportunity to make their presence felt. “The BJP is playing a role already. Anyone who understands serious politics knows Panneerselvam is BJP’s man and being backed by Delhi. Unfortunately, there is no towering leader who can bring both factions of the AIADMK together,” says R Mani, political analyst.

While the Congress will continue to stick with the DMK, hoping the alliance will come to power in changed political circumstances, the BJP with the power and weight of the central government behind it, will aim to dictate terms to a weakened AIADMK. But it would do well not to ignore the perception that despite being in power in Delhi, it did not push Karnataka to release sufficient Cauvery water to Tamil Nadu. It also carries the image of a Hindi belt party and that is a minus point in Tamil Nadu.

The third and biggest drawback for the BJP is the lack of a charismatic leader at the state level. What the AIADMK + BJP then may want to do is to look to form a combo pack with other smaller parties who may bring their individual vote share to the NDA kitty. Make the arithmetic work if the parties are weak with chemistry.

The political theatre in Tamil Nadu has seen too many changes in the lead cast of the AIADMK since December. With new scriptwriters, directors and actors entering the scene, the ecosystem of 2017 is set to change the face of politics in Tamil Nadu forever.