Prime Minister Narendra Modi will undertake his sixth visit to the USA since coming to power, for his first meeting with US President Donald Trump at the end of this week.

The results of this are possibly the most unpredictable and possibly the most consequential out of all of Modi’s travels to America thus far. This uncertainty has been introduced due to the personality, political outlook and capriciousness of the person currently occupying the White House.

Modi and Obama had, over the last three years, created a vibrant and vigorous edifice of bilateral ties. Obama had termed India-US relations as the “defining partnership of the 21st century.’’ Modi called it the “indispensable.’’

During his campaign, Trump had made many acerbic and corrosive comments about several countries and institutions. It is a matter of some satisfaction that by and large, he made positive references about India and Prime Minister Modi.

Modi and Trump have already spoken to each other on three earlier occasions. These interactions provide hope that the immutable logic of robust India-US ties will trump over any tendency that Trump might harbour to put them in regression.

The meeting between the two leaders in the White House on June 26 will be a ‘get to know each other’ interaction and to establish a healthy comfort level and a constructive relationship with each other.

Trump has thus far been a distracted leader as far as relations with India are concerned. As was expected, domestic affairs have occupied much of his time. But even these have ballooned out of control and have left him with little time to devote to international affairs. Modi’s challenge will be to get Trump actively engaged in and focused on affairs of the sub-continent.

On the bilateral front, defence ties can be expected to be a major subject of discussion. A congruence of views can be expected on this issue. The USA has emerged as the second largest supplier of defence equipment to India with orders worth US$ 16 billion. It is likely that keeping in mind Trump’s penchant to assess bilateral ties on a ‘what is in it for the United States’, a sizeable import of defence equipment from the USA will be announced just prior to Modi’s visit. Indian civil aviation companies are also in the market for buying about 225 aircraft. These could create 25,000 jobs in America and would contribute to tickling Trump’s ego.

The H-1B visa issue is another subject that will come up for discussion. Modi can be expected to underscore the fact that Indian investments in the USA create thousands of jobs in the country. Moreover, Indian IT companies based there have started increasing their off-take from US universities. Modi could ask Trump to evolve a reflective, balanced and far-sighted policy on this issue while reiterating that Indian companies are not interested in misuse of provisions of the H-1B visa regime. It will be in the fitness of things if this issue is projected as one which has the potential of bringing benefits to both sides.

The issue of climate change is also likely to come up in discussions. While informing Trump that India will meet its commitments without seeking any financial assistance from the international community, Modi should ensure that the conversation does not become confrontational. India is committed to protecting the environment because of its ideological and cultural ethos. India will be able to significantly surpass its commitments if it were to receive technology at affordable prices and monetary help from the global fraternity.

Perhaps the most pertinent discussion might that be on terrorism and Pakistan’s role in funding and supporting terrorism in Afghanistan and India; security and stability in Afghanistan will be other issues of discussion. Modi is likely to impress upon Trump to take a tough position on terrorism emanating from Pakistan. Modi will also exhort Trump to stay engaged in Afghanistan. The situation is becoming more complex as Russia, China and Pakistan are getting more actively involved in Afghanistan and are also reaching out to the Taliban to seek its help in restoring peace in the country. With increased presence of the Islamic State in the region, active and enhanced engagement of the USA in regional affairs is essential.

Relations with China are likely to receive considerable attention. Despite the harsh comments against China by Trump during his campaign, he radically changed his tune after meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in April 2017. He saw value in collaborating with China to confront the challenge posed by North Korea. China has failed to deliver on this so far leading to Trump’s disgruntled tweets. This could be a suitable opportunity for Modi and Trump to discuss how to deal with an increasingly assertive and hegemonistic China. Modi’s challenge will be to get Trump to declare US’s continuing and abiding interest in maintaining its dominant presence in Asia.

Discussions on participation by US companies in the Indian nuclear energy sector are likely to take place. Here the ball lies squarely in the US court as after Modi’s creative solution to the liability issue in 2015, it is the bankruptcy of the US Westinghouse company that has led to failure to register concrete progress in the matter.

India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and China’s roadblock are likely to be discussed. It is unlikely that the US will be willing to do any heavy lifting on India’s behalf as George W. Bush had done in 2008. It is due to difference in relative strengths of the two protagonists viz USA and China, then and now, and the nature and stature of leaders of the two countries – Donald Trump who is an isolationist and Xi Jinping who is in a hurry to restore China to its Middle Kingdom status.

In addition to his meeting with Trump, Modi will also confer with members of the two Houses of US Congress; with the US business community, and with the Indian diaspora. Modi’s vigorous interactions with all these stake-holders will send a strong message to Trump about the huge support that India and India-US partnership enjoy in the US political circles, business community and among Indian-American citizens.

Notwithstanding the likely absence of any eye-popping announcements, the value and significance of this meeting cannot be under-estimated. The equations that the two leaders establish during these days will determine relations not only between them but also between India and USA for at least the next four years.