And so Lalu makes his presence felt. He’s far away from the political action, but he’s clearly still calling the shots.

Number 10, Circular Road in Patna is a hub of activity. This is the home of Lalu’s wife Rabri Devi, a meeting of party workers is in progress but it’s Lalu who will decide candidates for the Lok Sabha seats. RJD leader and MP Manoj Jha sums up the general feeling when he says, “Laluji knows even booth-level workers by name. His being in jail at this time is a strategic blow for us.”

Given the state of affairs, party leaders are queuing up to visit Lalu. Not at the central jail, though—Lalu’s now at Rajendra Institute of Medical Sciences, receiving treatment for diabetes, blood pressure, kidney ailments, heart-related issues and an enlarged prostate. A section of the institute has been converted into a prison. Lalu is allowed three people to meet him every Saturday, and he decides who he’ll see. Despite the restrictions on visitors, many more land up, hoping for a meeting.

Lalu was admitted to Rajendra Institute of Medical Science, which has become a rallying point to meet him.

One of them is Ramai Ram. Once a close confidante and cabinet minister in Lalu’s government, he’s seeking candidature from Hajipur. But the ticket is already been promised to Shivchandra Ram, who’s close to Lalu’s family. Ram wants to lodge his protest with Rabri Devi and Lalu’s son Tejaswi Yadav, but he isn’t granted an audience. Instead a policeman posted tells him, “He (Lalu) is not feeling well today.” Minutes later, the Congress’s Tariq Anwar and Nationalist Congress Party’s DP Tripathi are summoned by Lalu. The slight to Ramai Ram is clear—Lalu knows whom to meet, and Ramai Ram is no longer in his trusted inner circle.

The deluge of visitors isn’t restricted to RJD members. Over the last few days, leaders from the Opposition have arrived at the hospital, seeking consultations on the pretext of asking after Lalu’s health. These include Akhilesh Singh and Ajay Kumar of the Congress, CPI(M) Secretary General Sitaram Yechury, D Raja of the CPI, Jitanram Manjhi of Hindustani Awam Morcha, Mukesh Sahani of Vikasheel Insan Party, actor Shatrughan Sinha who has joined Congress, and Sharad Yadav, who left JD(U) to form another party. As soon as the poll bugle was sounded, Lalu became the focal point in the state’s polls.

Ramai Ram, who was refused an audience with Lalu. Photo: Hridayesh Joshi

Lalu’s imprisonment has kept him away from campaigning, but he’s reportedly strengthened his connections with RJD cadres and supporters. Journalist and political analyst Urmilesh, who has tracked Bihar-Uttar Pradesh politics for decades, says: There is sympathy for Lalu amongst his voters, supporters and cadres. They feel while everyone is corrupt, Lalu is being specifically hounded.”

How Lalu’s running the show

Mornings are chaotic at Bungalow Number B-3/23 in Rajbanshi Nagar, a few kilometres from Rabri Devi’s residence in Patna. A middle-aged man wearing a blue T-shirt with black and white stripes and a white dhoti is interviewing candidates seeking tickets from the RJD. With a round face and a slight stubble, meet Bhola Yadav, an MLA from Bahadurpur seat. He’s also one of Lalu’s most trusted lieutenants. While Lalu’s son Tejaswi Yadav negotiates with other parties of the alliance for allocation of seats, Bhola Yadav prepares a list of potential candidates for the RJD.

Lalu’s electoral strategy is strongly based on a network of people like Bhola Yadav. Bhola can meet Lalu at any time—he has a patient’s attendant entry pass. Lalu’s other constant companion is Asghar, who is also a trusted aide. The network runs through these interactions and with the help of Lalu’s mobile phone, so he’s able to direct the schedule and composition of all RJD meetings that take place.

Lalu played an important role in not finalising the alliance’s seat distribution, holding his cards close to his chest. Lalu knew his party was the real force in the state and not the Congress, and he was not in favour of giving the Congress too many seats.

Bhola Yadav, who’s one of Lalu’s most trusted lieutenants. Photo: Hridayesh Joshi

As RJD leader Jagdanand Singh says, “What is the hurry? They—the BJP and JD(U)—are waiting for us and we are waiting for them.” Former JD(U) MP Ali Anwar, who had quit his party in 2017 to protest Nitish Kumar forging an alliance with the BJP, says, “Nitish-Modi are pitched against Lalu in Bihar. Lalu has a mass base, so he feels there’s no point in leaving too many seats for others.”

In the 2014 polls, the RJD got 20 per cent of the votes but only managed to get four seats. In 2015, it joined hands with the JD(U) and this formidable combination increased its vote share to 44 per cent.

The 2015 Assembly polls also saw the RJD’s best strike rate: it won 80 out of the 101 seats it contested. Four years later, Lalu is confident that he’ll ignite his “lantern” again. Sources close to him say he’s realised this is a “do or die” battle which is why, the caution about seat sharing notwithstanding, he took the Congress on board, though fully aware that Rahul Gandhi doesn’t like him. His son Tejaswi Yadav has openly said Rahul Gandhi will be Prime Minister if the Opposition comes to power at the Centre.

Arch rivals Nitish Kumar and Lalu joined hands in 2015. Photo: Nagendra Kumar Singh

Those in the know claim this is just one of the outcomes of Lalu’s strategies.

Protecting the family and the party

While he played hardball with the Congress and others over seat sharing, Lalu made sure his party and family came first when it came to selecting seats and candidates. Case in point is Sharad Yadav, who quit the JD(U) and formed his own party. Lalu convinced him to contest on an RJD ticket from Madhepura—a seat Sharad Yadav is keen to contest from. So this gives the RJD a senior Yadav leader to campaign through the state, and the party can maintain its share of 20 seats without further sharing it. The RJD is contesting from more seats in Bihar than any other party.

Saurabh Kumar, a TV journalist based in Patna, says, “The BJP and JD(U) are contesting on 17 seats each. The RJD’s image has got a fillip as it is contesting on the largest number of seats.”

On the family front, Lalu has nominated local MLA Chandrika Rai from the Chhapra seat. Rai is the father-in-law of Lalu’s son Tej Pratap, who is estranged from his wife. It’s a move meant to placate family ties, even though Tej Pratap has moved out, left the RJD and intends to set up his own political outfit.

Lalu Prasad and his children Misa Bharti, Tej Pratap Yadav and Tejaswi Yadav. Photo: Nagendra Kumar Singh

Meanwhile, the CPI (Marxist-Leninist) has been awarded an important seat by the RJD: the Arrah seat, since the CPI (ML) has a strong base there. In return, the CPI (ML) isn’t putting up a candidate at Patliputra and Lalu’s daughter Misa Bharti will contest from there instead. Misa lost the same seat by 40,322 votes in 2014 when RJD leader Ram Kripal Yadav switched to the BJP after he was denied a ticket. Importantly, despite 2014’s Modi wave, the CPI(ML) candidate from Patliputra got 51,623 votes. This current understanding with the CPI(ML) is bound to work in Misa’s favour.

So it’s a win for Lalu all round—he’s improved his relationship with the CPI(ML), and he’s secured a seat for his daughter.

‘Ear to ear’ campaigning

But the grand alliance still has its work cut out. How will it counter the BJP’s high voltage campaigns on social media and television? Does it have an answer to charges of nepotism, corruption, casteism and anti-nationalism? Currently, the RJD and Lalu’s family allege the CBI was misused to “trap” their leader. But Bhola Singh, surrounded by party supporters, says Lalu knows “how to counter the BJP’s Whatsapp and social media army”.

Bhola says, “Those who have the people’s power will ultimately dominate even if they don’t have money power. They (the BJP) are using money power to hire people and RSS cadres. But we’ve directed our workers to run ‘ear to ear’ campaigns in villages.”

Bhola says, “Our people are taking our messages to everyone without being paid. We are also active on WhatsApp and social media and (common people) are not going to be conned anymore. Laluji has told us to personally spread the message, and we’re doing just that.”

And it seems to be working.

In Shahpur village, about 100 km from Patna, there’s widespread anger against Lalu for corruption and backwardness. But even this is tempered by several diehard supporters of Lalu, whose aim is to make the “lantern” win. This includes 45-year-old Shankar Yadav and 51-year-old Mohan Rai. Both are labourers and they’re unaffected by chants of nationalism and airstrikes. Instead, they emphasise they’ll vote for the lantern, come what may.

Shankar Yadav says, “I am not convinced about the claim of 200 to 300 dead in India’s airstrike in Pakistan done by India.” He and Mohan think the airstrike, the crackdown on black money, and the BJP’s development schemes are false propaganda.” This is the essence of the “ear-to-ear” campaign—and that only Lalu will not be dictated by corporates or compromise on communalism.

RJD leader Jagdanand Singh, who equates Lalu with a “caged lion”, says RJD workers have smartphones and they’re “pushing back” against BJP supporters. “Can’t you see, the BJP came to power with the help of social media. And now they want to bring a law to control it. Now they’re on the run. There was a campaign on social media saying ‘chowkidar chor hai’, and they had to counter it with ‘chowkidar chaukanna hai’.”

Whatever the reach, it’s had an impact on people like Shankar and Mohan. As they point out, “Bhaiya dekhiyega chunav ke din datte rahenge polling booth per. Nun-roti khaenge, lekin laltaen chaap ko jeetaenge (On election day, we will work relentlessly at the polling booth. We will eat chapati and salt, but we’ll ensure the lantern wins).”

The RJD has no love for Kanhaiya

It is interesting to note that Lalu partnered with the CPI(ML) while ignoring other Left parties in the state: the CPI and CPI(M). In fact, the CPI’s secretary in Bihar, Satya Narayan Singh, told Newslaundry that last year, his party had been in touch with Lalu and there was an understanding to jointly contest the polls. “In our rally at Patna on October 25, about 2-3 lakh people came. RJD leaders Ramachandra Purbey and Tanweer Hassan attended. Everyone was there—Sharad Yadav, Ghulam Nabi Azad, Jitan Ram Manji. Everyone spoke in one voice that we should contest together to remove the NDA.”

But what’s panned out is quite different. In Begusarai, the RJD has fielded Tanweer Hassan against the BJP’s Giriraj Singh and CPI’s Kanhaiya Kumar. Giriraj Singh is a heavyweight Bhumihar leader but the RJD and CPI might have stood a chance if they fielded a candidate together. RJD MP Manoj Jha says party workers “insisted” on contesting this seat and they’ve worked hard to win it for years. But the truth might be quite different.

Kanhaiya Kumar is the CPI candidate in Begusarai.

Kanhaiya Kumar is a Bhumihar as well. An RJD leader told Newslaundry on condition of anonymity: “Bhumihars don’t like Lalu at all. Even his support of Kanhaiya wouldn’t have got him the support of this community. But the other problem is bigger—that Kanhaiya might overshadow Tejaswi.”

Young Tejaswi Yadav might be carrying his father’s mantle, but he still has a long way to go before becoming a grassroots leader like Lalu. On the other hand, Kanhaiya Kumar has a greater connect with the people and has emerged as a dynamic young voice. The CPI’s Satya Narayan Singh says Lalu and Tejaswi are “scared” of Kanhaiya. “They feel that if Kanhaiya wins now, he’ll be more active in the next Assembly polls.”

And that may not be good news for Tejaswi.

Begusarai isn’t Lalu’s only blunder. He gave 11 seats to leaders like Upendra Kushwaha, Jitan Ram Manjhi and Mukesh Sahani. If these three win and the NDA doesn’t get a simple majority on its own, it’s possible that Modi-Shah can bring these smaller parties to their side—unlike Leftist candidates which are historically against the BJP.

Mithilesh Kumar, a journalist with Prabhat Khabar, says, “RJD has planted its own men in these parties and in all three parties, at least one candidate each is Lalu’s man.” But political observers feel this step could cost Lalu dearly. Instead, he should have worked on his understanding with parties like the CPI(ML). Author and former member of the legislative council Prem Kumar Mani says: “I think the grand alliance has erred in seat sharing. The communists have here better party organisation, votes and more committed cadres against the BJP than Lalu has.”

He adds: “After the polls,  where would these—Kushwaha, Sahani, Manjhi—go? No one knows but the Left would always be against the BJP. The way seats have been allocated, it could cause a problem for the BJP.”

The ‘photocopy theory’ and caste politics

On a dusty road in Chhapra in Saran district, a young man disembarks from a dark-coloured SUV. Wearing white trousers and a cotton shirt, he’s accompanied by a group of supporters.

This is the RJD’s Jitendra Kumar Rai, an MLA from Marhaura Assembly segment, which is adjacent to Chhapra. He’s on the campaign trail hoping for a Lok Sabha ticket, and he’s laden with publicity material eulogising his leader. When asked why the RJD did no development work during its 15-year rule, Rai takes documents from his vehicle and talks about various schemes launched during Lalu’s regime. “Journalists in Delhi don’t know about ground realities.”

I ask him if he wants a ticket.

“Yes, of course. If I get a ticket, I will contest.”

“What if someone else gets the ticket?”

“There’s no candidate here. Whoever contests would be Laluji’s ‘photostate’ [photocopy].”

Rai eventually didn’t get a ticket but his photocopy theory is a reflection of how much the RJD’s win will hinge on Lalu’s personal charisma and caste equations.

But Lalu’s caste politics has become a key focus of criticism. A common assertion in political corridors is that Lalu has given tickets to people from his own community. During his tenure as chief minister, Yadavs were patronised to the extent that other communities felt they were receiving step-motherly treatment. Jokhan, a member of the Mallah community says, “How can we vote for Lalu Yadav? When he was in power, Yadavs used to say that in heaven, there’s Lord Ram, and on earth, there are Rais (Yadavs).”

Castes who supported Lalu in the 1990s have since moved away from him. The BJP-JD(U) alliance has alienated Lalu even further. His hopes are pinned on the Muslim-Yadav combination which comprises 28 per cent of the votes in the state. While Muslim voters seem to stand with him, his biggest challenge is to keep intact his own vote bank from the Yadav community.

In a market in Chhapra, 48-year-old Shrikrishna Sharma says, “The younger generation of Yadavs won’t hesitate in voting for the BJP and Nitish. Many of my friends are from Yadav community and they don’t like Lalu. Lalu’s days are over, he won’t be able to make a comeback. Nitish committed a mistake when he joined hands with him during the last (Assembly) elections. He revived Lalu’s party.”

Marginalised communities who initially supported RJD have now parted ways with Lalu. Photo: Hridayesh Joshi

According to political analysts and sociologists, Lalu empowered many marginalised sections of society leading to a backlash from upper castes. The political fallout is now the Yadavs alone stand with him—even communities whom he claimed to have “empowered” have parted ways with him.

Abhay Kumar Dubey of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies says: “The political scenario has changed since the 1990s. In addition to the Yadavs, many small and backward castes have carved their own identities and they want to compete in politics, be it Kushwaha or Manjhi or others. They are no less ambitious than Yadavs and they want their share in politics.”

Unlike the Yadavs, Dubey says, Lalu couldn’t give other castes a due share, which has pushed them towards the BJP and other constituents of the NDA. And unlike the late Bihari leader Karpoori Thakur, Lalu’s accusations of nepotism and corruption prop up the fact that he’s ignored development in his state. Dubey says: “He (Lalu) not only gained power but misused it to promote his family—which was contrary to the politics of Karpoori Thakur. Thakur still enjoys a great deal of credibility in Bihar even after his death, he’s seen as an ideal. I doubt Lalu will be remembered like that in history.”

So in many ways, this election might spell out Lalu’s destiny. Known for his energy and rustic sense of humour, his absence on the ground is too evident to paper over. It is uncertain how much he can manipulate Bihar’s politics from behind the curtain.