Anti-incumbency hangs heavy on the governing party, and even heavier on sitting members of the legislative assembly in Rajasthan – known for a “roti palatnewali” electorate which has rotated the party in power over five assembly elections in the last 25 years. 

The BJP and Congress, however, bet overwhelmingly on incumbent MLAs for the 200 assembly seats. Even this time, the Ashok Gehlot-led Congress has fielded 86 of the 100 MLAs, or 86 percent, who won in the last election. The BJP has chosen 61 of its total 73 MLAs, or 84 percent. But such bets have not paid off for both parties in the past, according to 2003-2018 election data analysed by Newslaundry. In the period considered, the Congress came to power in 2008 and 2018, and the BJP in 2003 and 2013.

Of the 621 sitting MLAs who contested these four elections, only 236 or 38 percent could win. And data suggests that BJP MLAs’ chances of retaining their status as a legislator was twice as much as Congress. 

Among these 621 incumbents, the BJP fielded 284 MLAs, but only about 50 percent, or 141, could secure victories. Among 272 Congress MLAs, only 25 percent could stay as such.

Data indicates that anti-incumbency impacts the poll prospects of sitting MLAs from the governing and opposition parties differently.

For example, in the 2003 polls, 25 sitting BJP MLAs fought again, and 15 of them,  or 60 percent, could win. For the Congress, the figure was just 22 percent with 29 victories among 134 incumbent MLAs who were in the fray. 

The pool of MLAs was much bigger with the Congress as it had won 153 seats in 1998 with the BJP reduced to 33 – it was the election which led to Ashok Gehlot’s first appointment as CM. Five years later, the anti-incumbency wind swept the Congress away. The BJP easily crossed the majority mark with 120 seats against the Congress’s 56.

This pattern of a better success rate of sitting MLAs from opposition parties holds true for the rest of the three elections.

Congress MLAs performed the worst in 2013. As many as 76 MLAs fought the polls. Only five or 7 percent could claim victory. 

The BJP’s worst was recorded in 2018 with only 35 percent of its sitting MLAs not voted out. Congress MLAs’ best came the same year when 14 of 17 sitting lawmakers, or 82 percent, emerged victorious. In the previous elections in 2013, the Congress had total 21 MLAs, its worst tally in the state’s electoral history. In 2018, the Congress’s tally jumped to 100.

The BJP’s best outing was witnessed in 2003 when its MLAs’ success rate was 60 percent as mentioned earlier.

Why parties persist with MLAs

In 2018, a poll slogan caught people’s imagination: “Modi tere se bair nahi, Vasundhara teri khair nahi (we have no grudge against Modi but won’t spare Vasundhara).” Then chief minister Vasundhara Raje had faced heat after Rajput gangster Anandpal Singh, largely seen as a symbol of pride among his community, was killed in an alleged fake police encounter.

Now, another such slogan, co-opted from the earlier one, is being bandied about: “Gehlot tere se bair nahi, vidhayak teri khair nahi (we have no grudge against Gehlot but won’t spare MLAs).”

In this interview with The Lallantop, CM Gehlot said he was aware of such a slogan. In a CSDS Lokniti-NDTV survey published earlier this month, 43 percent of the respondents were “satisfied” with his work. The rating, according to the CSDS-Lokniti Rajasthan coordinator Sanjay Lodha, was “moderately high if not very high”.

But despite perceptible sentiments against MLAs, the Congress could not muster the courage to give tickets to more new faces. 

The Congress has repeated 86 percent of its 100 MLAs this time while the BJP has also stayed with the trend. 

However, what works in favour of the BJP is that sitting MLAs from the opposition party have a better chance of winning than those from the ruling party, as the data suggests. The success rate of BJP MLAs when in opposition was 60 percent in 2003 and 82 percent in 2013. The same for Congress MLAs was 47 percent in 2008 and 84 percent in 2018.

Electoral experts list two key reasons why the two parties favour sitting MLAs: possibility of revolt by MLAs if their candidature is denied, and wealth creation. However, political parties trot out “winnability” as the lone deciding factor in choosing candidates.

“There is fear among political parties that if they don’t give tickets to sitting MLAs they may revolt, contest as independent or join smaller parties such as BSP, RLP, AAP or AIMIM. Another factor is resources. While in power, some MLAs do amass some riches. And it doesn’t matter if they are out of power or in power. This way, the party may not have to invest more on the candidate,” said Sanjay Lodha.

As far as money power of both parties is concerned, the BJP has received five times more donations than the Congress. According to Association for Democratic Rights, a non-partisan organisation focusing on money and muscle power in electoral politics, the BJP got Rs 5,271.97 crore in electoral bonds between 2016-17 and 2021-22 against the Congress’s Rs 952.29 crore.

But money power alone cannot withstand the electorate’s ire and snubbed MLAs’ revolt. The BJP learnt it the hard way this time after the first list of 41 candidates, of whom 39 were fresh faces, including seven MPs. In more than 10 seats, loyalists protested against the BJP for benching them.

“This election is an election of one-upmanship from both sides, and personal egos above the party. Chief minister Ashok Gehlot has distributed tickets to some just because they saved his government (in 2020). Gehlot said: ‘They should be given tickets because they saved my government.’ The BJP has made a lot of changes in its first list. There was a big reaction. In the subsequent lists, the BJP switched back to loyalists. Even then, the BJP has brought in more fresh faces,” said political analyst and journalist Avinash Kalla.

Kallah explained why sitting BJP MLAs have a better track record of winning than those from the Congress. “Whether in or out of power, the BJP cadre is always connected to the electorate. The Congress, on the other hand, limits itself to a coterie during power,” he stressed. To buttress his point, Kallah recalled a chat between Congress minister Shanti Dhariwal and leader of opposition Rajendra Rathore. “Rathore said: ‘Dhariwal-ji, you are seen in the assembly only when you are in power. So you don’t know how it feels like to be in the opposition for five years’,” the journalist said.  

Lodha agreed. “The BJP is a very powerful organisation. There are so many Hindu outfits. All of them are active. Some are professional organisations which support the BJP. Another factor is availability of resources.”

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