“My visit to Qatar has added new vigour to the India-Qatar friendship. India looks forward to scaling up cooperation in key sectors relating to trade, investment, technology and culture. I thank the government and people of Qatar for their hospitality,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted after his post UAE stopover in the Gulf country that had come to be known in India since 2022 for jailing eight ex-Navy officers.

The eight had been sentenced to death last October. They were  released on February 11, and flown home in the early hours of the next day. Their return ended an agonising wait for the families of the veterans and ended a troubling episode between the two countries.

Modi flew to Qatar on February 14 after his two-day visit to the United Arab Emirates. It was a thank you visit for the release of the eight men. After his meeting with Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani on February 15, Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra said, “The Prime Minister thanked His Highness, the Amir, for his support for the welfare of the Indian community and, in this regard, expressed his deep appreciation to His Highness, the Amir, for the release of eight Indian nationals of Al-Dahra company. We are extremely gratified to see them back in India.”

Modi also met Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jasim Al-Thani. An MEA readout of this visit said the two leaders discussed the latest situation in the West Asia region and emphasised the “importance of upholding peace and stability in the region and beyond”.

The visit yielded no particular outcomes in the sectors mentioned by Modi in his tweet – trade, investment, technology and culture – but India-Qatar commercial relations had already received a boost from a mega LNG deal that the two sides concluded just six days before the men were released. This is what the Ministry of External Affairs brief on Qatar says about the deal and about India’s gas imports from Qatar in general:

“Qatar is the largest supplier of LNG to India (10.74 MMT for US$ 8.32 billion in FY 2022-23), accounting for over 48% of India's global LNG imports. Qatar is also India’s largest supplier of LPG (5.33 MMT for US$ 4.04 billion in FY 2022-23) accounting for 29% of India’s total LPG imports. Besides LNG, India also imports ethylene, propylene, ammonia, urea and polyethylene from Qatar.

“Therefore, the balance of trade continues to be heavily in Qatar’s favour. However, there has been a substantial growth in India’s exports to Qatar in the last few years [bilateral trade in  2022-23 was US$ 18.77 billion. India’s exports to Qatar during 2022-23 was US$ 1.96 billion and India’s import from Qatar was US$ 16.8 billion].

“A long term contract, LNG Sale and Purchase Agreement, was signed on 6 February 2024 during the visit of Qatar’s Minister of State for Energy Affairs Engineer Saad bin Sherida Al Kaabi to India for participating in the India Energy Week 2024. The deal stipulates 7.5 MMTPA supply by QatarEnergy to PetronetLNG for 20 years starting 2028”.

Media reports have estimated that the gas deal, a 20-year extension of an ongoing arrangement that was due to expire in 2028, is worth about $78 billion.

Silence on security, defence

So all’s well that ends well, or is there a loose end that still remains to be tied up?

In the flurry of statements and tweets about Modi’s visit, the vaunted security and defence cooperation between the two countries finds no mention. Defence cooperation was earlier  described by the MEA as “one of the pillars” of the bilateral relationship.

In 2008, the two sides signed a defence co-operation agreement that Indian officials at the time described as “short of stationing of troops” in that country. The five year pact was first renewed in 2013, and by the Modi government in 2018. It was allowed to lapse last November, days after the eight ex-Navy officials received the death sentence for charges that have not been disclosed by either government, but speculated by the media to be espionage.

The agreement, whose key aspects were reportedly linked to training, and cooperation in maritime security, and  against terrorism, piracy, and transnational crime such as money laundering and narcotics trafficking, gave the Indian Navy operational access to Qatar’s waters to provide security to shipping lanes. India also got to  project its maritime power in the region. In 2016, the pact was upgraded to include joint exercises, enhanced training of naval, air and land forces, and coastal defence. Qatar was also interested in Make in India joint production of defence equipment.

But there has been no apparent discussion at the political or official level on another extension of the defence cooperation agreement, at least none that can be announced as an outcome in a press release.

Why Dahra was a big deal

It was on the ground paved by the defence cooperation pact that Dahra Global Technologies and Consultancy Services, a Omani private company based in Muscat, with experience of training the Omani armed forces, began operations in Doha with a complement of retired officers of the Indian Navy. Commander (retired) Purnendu Tiwari, who had worked with the Singapore and Thailand navies after his retirement, was hired as the managing director.

Seven of the eight arrested men were all in top managerial positions, but Dahra also had over 100 other ex-Indian Navy staffers working in various capacities (their services were terminated last year, months after the arrests of the eight men). The company had a sprinkling of Filipinos and Russians but was an Indian show. It was the first of its kind private venture, and perhaps the only one to date, that employed senior Indian ex-servicemen to train the armed forces of another country, in that country. The Indians were training the Qatari Emiri Naval Forces at a time when it was growing, showing that the company enjoyed a high degree of trust in the Qatari system.

As has been  evident since its facilitation of the Taliban-US talks, as it hosted the FIFA tournament, and especially after the outbreak of hostilities between Hamas and Israel, from its role as intermediary, Qatar’s regional and international clout far exceeds its size. The biggest US military base in the West Asian region is located in Qatar. Just last month, the country is reported to have renewed an agreement to allow the base to continue for another 10 years.

As such, the Indian-manned Dahra was considered a breakthrough model for advancing India’s military relations in the Gulf. Although Delhi was deliberate in referring to the jailed veterans as “eight Indian nationals” all through the saga, playing down their Navy credentials, the company’s work was deemed important for helping India-Qatar bilateral relations achieve new heights.

The company’s website (it was removed on October 27, on the day the first report about the eight Indians in custody was published ) had impressive credentials posted on its website. Its work had received praise from the Indian mission in Doha. Former Ambassador Deepak Mittal had written that the company was doing “great work” to “build capacities and capabilities of Qatar Defence Forces”. “You are testament to the vision of the Indian leadership to partner with friendly countries and share our experiences,” Mittal wrote.

Periasamy Kumaran, who was ambassador before Mittal, had praised the company’s work for its “effective showcasing of India’s defence capabilities” and for “creati[ing] new opportunities for cooperation and collaboration” between the two countries. It was also during this time that Commander Tiwari received the Pravasi Bharat Samman award, the first time that an ex-serviceman was accorded an honour created for members of the Indian diaspora.

The concern is about the reputation costs that the Dahra fiasco may carry for India's defence cooperation with other countries. The secrecy surrounding the charges and the speculation about the espionage allegations for a third country do not help clear the air.

What next?

Three indicators will signal if India and Qatar are working to repair the security relationship. But at the moment, all three are showing red.

The first is DIMDEX, an international defence expo that Qatar holds every two years. Since 2016, India has been a big presence at this event, with the participation of at least one Indian Navy ship and a high-level-delegation, usually headed by the Western Navy Commander, who makes a presentation at the Middle East Naval Commanders conference held during the event.  

This year’s DIMDEX is coming up soon, from March 4 to 6. INS Kolkata, the stealth guided-missile destroyer currently deployed in the Gulf of Aden, was listed as one of the visiting warships at the event, but it has now been cancelled. And there is no word yet about the customary participation of senior officers.

Zair al Bahar, a joint maritime exercise, would be another sign. The first time it was held in 2019 and the second in 2021. If a third edition was scheduled last year, it was not held.

Soon after the arrests of the eight veterans, the Defence Advisor at the Indian Embassy in Doha, a serving Navy officer, Captain Atla Mohan, shut down his office abruptly, packed up and returned to India. His assistant and driver also left with him, indicating that something was badly amiss. DAs departing at the end of their posting are feted at endless farewell receptions. The officer taking his place is usually present at these events. There was none of this for Captain Mohan. He did not hand over his office to a successor. No one has been posted in his place. 

The surest sign that Qatar and India have buried the events of the last 18 months will come with the restoration of the office of the Indian Defence Advisor at India’s diplomatic mission in Doha. 

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