Between March 31 to May 30, PM Narendra Modi conducted public meetings across 151 constituencies, of which the BJP-led NDA won 85 – a strike rate of 56 per cent. 

This was better than the 48 percent success rate of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. Of the 66 constituencies across 18 states and union territories where he held public meetings, the Congress-led INDIA alliance won in 32. The Congress leader, however, has won his Lok Sabha seats with a higher margin than Modi’s.

But compared to 2019, the strike rate has shrunk for Modi. In the last Lok Sabha elections, PM Modi had held meetings in 103 constituencies with the BJP-led NDA losing only in 17 – a strike rate of 85 percent.  

The big setbacks

The big setbacks to PM Modi came in states like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Kerala, Punjab and Haryana. 

In Uttar Pradesh, PM Modi conducted the highest number of public meetings – 23. Of these segments, NDA lost in 13 constituencies. Whereas in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, this number stood at six. 

After UP, West Bengal was clearly Modi’s priority where he conducted 19 public meetings in as many constituencies but the BJP lost in 12 of them. 

In Maharashtra, the BJP-led NDA lost in 14 of the 18 constituencies where the PM conducted public meetings. 

In Rajasthan, the BJP alliance has won in only three constituencies of the eight where Modi held public meetings. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, when the BJP-led NDA had a clean sweep, PM Modi had held five public meetings in the state. 

Another setback came from Punjab and Haryana, where this election season Modi held six public meetings – three in each state. However, the alliance has lost in five of those constituencies. 

In Kerala and Tamil Nadu, his strike rate was zero despite five meetings during this period. In Telangana, NDA lost in three out of five constituencies where the PM held a rally. 

However, if the period of observation for this analysis is changed, the strike rate could alter. For example, in Thrissur, where the PM kicked off his Kerala campaign in January, the BJP has now made its debut with Suresh Gopi emerging as the winner.

Other battleground states

Two other battleground states were high on PM Modi’s priority – Bihar (13) and Karnataka (8). The NDA lost in four of these 21 constituencies. 

In Gujarat, it wasn’t a clean sweep this time, with the BJP losing Banaskantha despite six public meetings – a surge from the two public meetings he held in 2019. 

At the same time, there were some states where the PM’s strike rate was hundred percent, such as Odisha, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Assam, Jammu and Kashmir and Tripura. He held 30 public meetings across these states. 

The areas Rahul Gandhi focussed on

Most of Gandhi’s public meetings were concentrated in the constituencies where he was contesting from – six in Rae Bareli and two in Wayanad. He has won both with a big margin.

In UP, INDIA lost in six of the 14 segments where Gandhi conducted public meetings.

In Kerala, Gandhi held seven public meetings in seven constituencies. But his party lost to the Kerala Congress in one, in Kottayam. 

In comparison to Modi, there were only two states where Gandhi had a hundred percent strike rate – Punjab and Jharkhand. 

In the battleground states of Bihar, Maharashtra and Karnataka which constitute 130 constituencies, Gandhi held public meetings in 14 segments. The INDIA bloc lost in six of these. 

The Congress leader’s track record was worse in Delhi, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Odisha and Rajasthan, where he held 14 public meetings in as many constituencies. But the INDIA bloc won in none.

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