The meaning of assembly elections was already turned on its head before the announcement for polls in Jammu and Kashmir. 

The first seismic jolt had come in 2019 with the J&K Reorganisation Act when the state was split like an atom, cleaved into two union territories – Ladakh without an elected assembly and Jammu and Kashmir with an elected assembly. Then came the other changes.

Under the Indian constitution, union territories, with or without the legislative assemblies, do not enjoy powers equivalent to a state and continue to be more directly controlled units in varying degrees. But the August 5, 2019 move, which also stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its autonomy, was an unprecedented case of demotion. 

And when sweeping powers of oversight of any legislative business were given to the centrally-appointed Lieutenant Governor, ahead of the poll announcement, it was a simple endorsement of that demotion. An endorsement that ended the suspense over the limits of power any future legislature or government of Jammu and Kashmir would enjoy. 

Cautious optimism in J&K

That is why, while the poll announcement is being bandied about as a festival of democracy by the Election Commission of India and the Bharatiya Janata Party, the response within Jammu and Kashmir is so far guarded optimism.  

The regional political players, particularly the two main dynasties, are caught in the ‘to do or not to do’ bind. Having governed full-fledged states, contesting for what appears to be a large municipal council christened as legislature, their predicament is nothing short of a ‘dharam sankat’. 

The other challenge for the regional players, whose political narrative was always pivoted to the erstwhile state’s autonomy, is that they can neither cling on to the ‘370 abrogation’ rhetoric, nor discard it completely. To give it up would be treason to their ideological moorings and a sign of humiliation. To walk around with its shroud would be to trap themselves in a time warp.

With increasing realism at the ground level, the electorate is losing its appetite for promises that ring hollow. At the ground level, there is a sinking realisation that what has happened since 2019 is irreversible. 

The ‘hands of the clock cannot be turned back,’ Indira Gandhi had famously said on Kashmir. 

If history is a guide, leave aside the restoration of Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy, even its statehood seems like a remote possibility – at least in the near future. 

Despite these challenges, in all probability, the regional parties will soon gear up and enter the fray. So will the Congress which is a key player in Jammu region. They have no option but to scramble for the symbolic crumbs that the legislature offers in its new avatar.

Preliminary reading of factors

What political dynamics will unfold in the next few weeks and what would be the composition of the new truncated legislature? This will depend on several factors, primarily on how the BJP, Congress, and other parties form or shed alliances and play their cards, how voter enthusiasm will wax or wane, and what the voting patterns would be like. 

So far, there is an indication that the voting would, by and large, be on the lines of the parliamentary polls. Despite the clipped wings of any prospective legislature, these assembly polls assume a certain significance and interest of the voters.

Crushed under the arrogance of bureaucracy coupled with the brutality of militarisation, irrespective of regional differences, the people are craving for some democratic representation that can allow them the luxury of taking up their day-to-day issues of bread, butter, and basic amenities, otherwise a normal ingredient of any functional democracy. In the Kashmir valley, where the sense of humiliation under acute repression and an imposed silence drove people in hordes to the polling booths in the recent Lok Sabha polls, it was an act of vengeance that may continue to be a motivating factor in the assembly polls.

But it is too early to predict anything with any precision. 

As the common refrain goes: Nothing is predictable about Jammu and Kashmir – neither its weather, nor its politics. Now, it is difficult to predict even the terrain. The realignment of electoral boundaries in the delimitation, alleged to be a case of manipulative redistricting to suit the BJP’s electoral fortunes, has left most constituencies drastically reshaped and beyond anyone’s comprehension.

In Kashmir, a formidable presence of regional players

One can only speculate about the possible permutations and combinations, considering the recent parliamentary polls as a benchmark. 

Kashmir can be more predictable where the key regional players – National Conference with its freshly rejuvenated cadres, and to a much lesser extent, the badly bruised and battered Peoples Democratic Party – still have a formidable presence. The BJP did not field any candidates during the parliamentary polls but relied on proxy parties which miserably underperformed. Neither did the Congress which contested in alliance with the National Conference. 

The National Conference had won two of the three Lok Sabha seats, including the Anantnag-Rajouri seat reshaped by tagging the Pir Panjal area of Jammu province with the valley. The third seat was won by an independent – the as-yet-jailed Engineer Rashid who emerged as a symbol of Kashmir’s collective victimhood and enjoys a clean image. 

The parliamentary verdict in Kashmir was clear. It voted against BJP and will continue to. If given a choice, it would oust the lesser evils – PDP, which allied with the BJP in 2014, as well as the National Conference which carries the historic baggage of enabling New Delhi’s manipulations and the erosion of the state’s autonomy, in the past. Whether the BJP attempts to hoist its saffron flag in the valley or fires salvos from the shoulders of its proxies, or whether the Congress backs the National Conference in Kashmir may be immaterial. 

Congress does not have a strong presence in the region but influences some pockets. So do political formations like Peoples Conference and Apni Party – whom the BJP backed. Would any of them be able to manage to grab a couple of seats? 

Rashid, a two-time legislator, has a party that is a one-man show but could there be more sequels of that phenomenon with some lesser-known but acceptable faces joining the fray? If at all this happens, it may not be a huge phenomenon. 

All these factors together may be sufficient to contain the National Conference, or PDP, of the necessary numbers. 

Jammu is even more unpredictable

In the Jammu region, while both parliamentary seats were bagged by the BJP in 2024, the latter’s victory margin was widely reduced. The voting patterns indicated that BJP’s share of votes was minimal in the hilly Muslim majority districts of Jammu region, where more people voted for the Congress. 

Jammu usually follows the general voting pattern of mainland India. Hence, guided by different needs, the people may vote differently in the assembly elections as compared to the parliamentary elections. 

Despite a strong Hindutva constituency, there is deep-rooted resentment against the BJP within Jammu post-abrogation of Article 370, stemming from the loss of protections concerning land and jobs. In the parliamentary polls, Jammu’s two constituencies went to polls in the first and the second phases of the long-drawn-out electoral process. Since then, Modi’s persona – the key element in all BJP campaigns – has dwindled and the pan-Indian appeal of the Congress has deepened. This may benefit the latter in the region. 

While a Congress alliance with NC may be of little consequence in the valley, it is in Jammu’s Chenab Valley and Pir Panjal areas where this can be a game-changer. Any division of votes in pockets where the NC (also PDP) has a strong influence would enable BJP to polish off more seats in the Jammu region. The delimitation has already created more Hindu majority constituencies that are seen as beneficial for the BJP in these areas. The Ghulam Nabi Azad factor, which made a huge dent in the Congress vote during parliamentary polls, can also aid the BJP’s electoral fortunes in the Chenab Valley. But fresh reports suggest he may go back to the Congress.  

While much will depend on the possible alliances between the Congress and National Conference, with or without the less likely PDP in tow, a lot will also depend on the ability of the BJP to pull out a magic rabbit from its hat. Its repeated rants on religion, mandir, nationalism, security will no longer find much currency in Jammu, barring among the committed voters. 

Will it invent a new political narrative or would this resourcefully rich party resort to other ways of manipulation? 

BJP’s dismantling of Jammu and Kashmir state, the only Muslim-majority state in the country, in 2019 was an ideologically driven move to fulfill its long-held ambition of changing the region’s demography as well as to plant a Hindu chief minister from its party. This deep desire is the rock bottom of the prolonged delay in holding the assembly polls.  

The fact that the long-awaited elections in Jammu and Kashmir were finally announced, and given preference over Jharkhand and Maharashtra, makes people ask the unsettling question: What is BJP’s game plan? 

A lot will depend on that. 

As of now, the only certainty is about a future assembly that is powerless and marked by the absence of Ladakhi faces.

The author is managing editor of Kashmir Times and author of A Dismantled State: The Untold Story of Kashmir After Article 370.