The Maratha demand to grant Kunbi certificates to all Marathas in order to grant them an OBC quota, and the OBC community’s opposition to these demands, have left Maharashtra’s political stalwarts in a bind ahead of the assembly polls.

Consider the case of Sharad Pawar, the state’s tallest Maratha leader whose party had always backed the demand for a Maratha quota. But earlier this month, the NCP (SCP) chief and the state’s tallest opposition leader had to pass the ball into the centre’s court when confronted by protesters in Solapur to clarify his position.

Meanwhile, Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde, who had in May said that the Shiv Sena-BJP-NCP alliance had walked the extra mile to grant 10 per cent reservation to the Maratha community in the state, last month had to chair an all-party meeting “to build consensus” around the issue. And leaders from his coalition subsequently pinned the blame on the opposition parties for a “deadlock” as they skipped the meeting. 

A sense of polarisation had been evident in the Lok Sabha results, with the BJP winning zero seats in Marathwada, the centre of the Maratha quota stir. 

Leaders from both sides have recently claimed that the situation in Maharashtra could turn into a Manipur-like crisis. And amid the political gridlock, Manoj Jarange Patil, Maratha leader and the face of the Maratha agitation, continues to intensify the demand for an OBC quota for all Marathas. OBC activists, led by Lakshman Hake, have upped the pressure too.

Patil, speaking at his Shantata rally in Nashik on August 13, had accused both the government and opposition of exploiting the Maratha community for political gain while failing to deliver on their promises. He announced that if progress is not made by August 29, the community will field its own candidates in the upcoming elections. 

What the numbers suggest about poll impact

All eyes are on how this issue will influence the poll campaign in Maharashtra. While there isn’t a precise caste census detailing the number of Maratha and OBC voters across the 288 constituencies, parties understand that these communities hold the power to sway the outcome of the polls.

According to a Maharashtra State Backward Class Commission report this February, Marathas form 28 percent of the state’s while 94 percent of the farmers who die by suicide are from the Maratha community. The OBC population in the state, according to a 2022 report by the commission, was at 32.8 percent, with 346 subcastes.

Nitin Birmal, a political science professor and the state coordinator for Lokniti-CSDS in Maharashtra, observed that political parties are unlikely to clarify their stance as around 160-170 seats in Maharashtra are heavily influenced by Maratha voters while approximately 60-70 seats are dominated by OBCs. The impact of the Maratha reservation issue could be particularly severe in Marathwada, where Maratha voters are concentrated in the 60 assembly seats of the region.

As per a review of parliamentary records and PRS Legislative Research data, 26 of the 48 recently elected Lok Sabha MPs from the state are from the Maratha community. Nine were OBCs.

These 26 Maratha MPs were from across the political spectrum: six each from the two Shiv Sena factions, five from the BJP, four from the Congress, and four from Sharad Pawar’s party. And of the nine OBC MPs, four were from the Congress, two from NCP (SCP), and one each from the NCP, BJP and Shiv Sena.

As per Lokniti-CSDS data on the latest Lok Sabha polls, 27 percent of Marathas voted for BJP and 19 percent voted for its allies. Around 14 percent voted for the Congress while 25 percent voted for the Uddhav Thackeray Sena faction and Sharad Pawar NCP. In terms of OBC voters, 33 percent voted for BJP and 17 percent for its allies whereas 11 percent voted for Congress and 28 percent for its allies, it noted.

The roots of a rift

In the first call by the OBC community to boycott Marathas in response to last year’s Maratha quota stir, the Vanjari community, a powerful OBC group in Mundhewadi village of Beed, made an announcement on May 16 this year to boycott hotels, shops, hospitals, and other establishments owned by the Maratha community. Tensions had escalated after the Eknath Shinde government accepted Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange Patil’s demands for Maratha reservation. 

But while the Shinde government agreed to Jarange-Patil’s demands, it did not commit to granting Marathas reservation under the OBC category. Patil’s subsequent push for OBC inclusion was strongly opposed by OBC leaders, who argued that it would reduce their own reservation quota. Prominent OBC figures, including NCP leader Chagan Bhujbal and activist Lakshman Hake, organised demonstrations, triggering a sense of polarisation.

In Beed and Jalna, which were the epicentres of hunger strikes and protests from both communities, the divide deepened after Sharad Pawar fielded a Maratha candidate against Pankaja Munde, a prominent OBC leader, defeating her in her bastion of Beed by around 6,000 votes in the Lok Sabha elections. 

Dada Saheb Munde, a resident of Beed and from the OBC community, said, “The epicentre of these protests is in Marathwada, so the rift between OBCs and Marathas is more prominent here, especially in rural areas…another factor that intensified the issue was the defeat of OBC leaders like Pankaja Munde in Beed and Mahadev Jankar in Parbhani. After these political defeats, OBCs felt their leaders were defeated because Marathas rallied behind candidates supported by Sharad Pawar and his allies.As Marathas decided to unite, OBCs have also come together and will vote collectively against Maratha candidates.”

Manik Kadam, a farmer leader from the Maratha community in Parbhani, said, “This reservation movement began due to poor economic conditions in rural areas, but reservations alone won’t solve the problem. Maratha farmers with reservations still suffer and die in Vidarbha..if the government doesn’t take this issue seriously, BJP-Sena-NCP (Mahayuti) will likely lose the assembly elections.”

However, Babanrao Taywade, an influential OBC leader in Nagpur and head of Rashtriya OBC Mahasangh, said it’s unlikely that Marathas will vote collectively. “There is a difference between social and political movements. In social movements, the entire community comes together in support, but in political movements, people segregate as everyone has their own political ideology. Therefore, I don’t think that Marathas will vote collectively because this social movement has become political now. Jarange-Patil himself has exposed this by constantly targeting only Devendra Fadnavis and Chagan Bhujbal.”

“He only mentions the names of Fadnavis and Bhujbal but never talks about other leaders like Ajit Pawar or Eknath Shinde, Sharad Pawar or Uddhav Thackeray. Recently, Jarange even said he will support Pawar and Shinde. He has just taken a political stance and nothing else. Every 15 days, he changes his demand.”

History of a contentious quota

The first movement for Maratha reservation began in 1982 when Anna Saheb Patil, a prominent Maratha leader and Congressman from the Mathadi community, demanded reservation for Marathas. Patil issued a one-day ultimatum to the then Congress government led by Baba Saheb Bhosale, threatening to end his life if his demands were not met. When his demands were ignored, Patil shot himself dead, sparking a decades-long struggle for Maratha reservation.

Since then, numerous committees have been formed to address the demand for Maratha reservation. 

Based on the Khatri Commission report, the Mandal Commission included Kunbi Marathas under the OBC category, while listing Marathas as a forward caste. This classification went largely unchallenged by Marathas in Paschim Maharashtra, Konkan, and Marathwada. 

Kunbi Marathas were predominantly found in Vidarbha, influenced by the first agriculture minister of India, a Maratha from Vidarbha, who encouraged Marathas to adopt the Kunbi title. In contrast, Marathas in Paschim Maharashtra, Konkan, and Marathwada did not add Kunbi to their caste, triggering contentions around the quota.

In November 2018, based on the M G Gaikwad Commission report, the BJP-Sena government in Maharashtra created a special socially and economically backward class category and gave 16 percent reservation to Marathas. The Mumbai High Court upheld this reservation, but in 2021, during the MVA government’s tenure, the Supreme Court struck down the Maratha reservation. Then, in February this year, following the hunger strike and protests started by Jarange-Patil last year, the Maharashtra government passed a bill giving Marathas a 10 percent quota in education and jobs.

However, Maratha leaders felt the 10 percent quota would not stand the test of legal scrutiny and began demanding an inclusion in the OBC list instead. 

Catch-22

Political leaders from both the Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi alliances now face a challenging situation, as alienating either community could lead to electoral losses.

NCP (SCP) Pune president Prashant Jagtap, said, “Whether it’s OBC, Maratha, Dhangar, Lingayat or Muslim, our party supports reservation for all of them. All of them are not in good condition and need reservation.”

Sushma Andhare, deputy leader of Shiv Sena (UBT), said, “We are involved in state politics, but reservation policies belong to parliament politics. Our constitutional framework requires the support of 272 parliamentarians and more than half of the state assembly to change the rules. Unfortunately, we don’t have that majority, but the BJP does. To increase the reservation beyond 50 percent in the state, a change must be made in the ninth schedule, which only parliament can do. If the BJP genuinely intends to protect OBC reservations and grant reservations to Marathas, they should present it in parliament.”

Shiv Sena leader Manisha Kayande said, “The chief minister has repeatedly stated that our government genuinely wants to give quotas to the Marathas. We even conducted assembly sessions and passed a bill for 10 percent reservation. The CM has assured that the quota will withstand legal challenges. Now, suddenly, Jarange-Patil is demanding Marathas be included in the OBC quota…the opposition is playing games, changing their statements from the floor of the house to the media. They refuse to attend all-party meetings to discuss the issue. Even  honourable Sharad Pawar has not clearly stated his party’s stand, and Congress is also unclear about their position. They are just toying with the issue, not taking it seriously for either the Marathas or the OBCs.”

Mumbai-based political commentator Harish Kerzarkar said all parties refrain from making clear statements as 70 percent of the state’s voters come from these two communities. “Making a statement on this issue can turn out to be a political blunder with elections just a few months away…parties might have leaders from both Maratha and OBC communities make statements against each other, but no official party statements will be made. During elections, both sides might field dummy candidates from these communities to divide votes. Traditionally, Marathas might vote for MVA due to Sharad Pawar’s influence, and OBC voters might support Mahayuti as they are traditional BJP voters. Muslim and Dalit votes will again be deciding factors, just like in the Lok Sabha elections.”

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