Two years ago, when the Shiv Sena fractured into two factions and Eknath Shinde aligned with the BJP, backed by 40 MLAs, many political observers viewed it as the conch-call heralding the end of his political career. The sentiment was that Shinde, as Maharashtra chief minister, would be a pawn in the hands of the BJP and his faction would soon see a mass exodus to the Uddhav Thackeray camp.

But two years later, Shinde has defied these prophecies. Instead, he has carved out a distinct identity as the CM and presented a significant challenge to the Shiv Sena faction led by Uddhav Thackeray in the Lok Sabha elections, solidifying his position in the state's political landscape.

Despite not being as popular as Uddhav Thackrey, the Shiv Sena faction led by Shinde performed fairly well in the Lok Sabha – winning seven of the 15 seats it contested. It emerged victorious across the 13 seats in which it was in direct contest with the Thackeray faction, including the traditionally favourable areas like Hathkangale. In contrast, the Shiv Sena (UBT) secured nine of the 21 seats it contested.

Shinde’s resilience and poll tactics have turned him into a key player from an underdog, also shifting the popular opinion on his leadership.

Now, in the upcoming assembly elections, both Shinde and Thackeray face another critical leadership test. The results will be crucial in determining not only their political futures but also defining which faction is the embodiment of the original Sena’s legacy, and several factors seem to be leaning in favour of Shinde.   

A ‘grassroots leader, accessible round the clock’

While leaders and the cadre of the Uddhav faction emphasise Thackeray’s legacy and his composed demeanour, Shinde’s supporters highlight his strong grassroots connections and approachable leadership style. 

The contrast also highlights two different political approaches: one focused on legacy and the other on connection with the masses.

A poll analyst speaking on condition of anonymity told Newslaundry that Shinde has emerged as a leader who is “highly active” and “accessible round the clock”. 

“In every district, he has appointed individuals to connect directly with him, addressing local issues that he prioritises. His presence is felt everywhere, and his confidence is evident in his body language. In contrast, Uddhav Thackeray tends to stay away from grassroots engagements. However, his strength lies in his loyal cadre. The support of his cadre remains a significant asset for him,” he said. 

The analyst added, “In the current scenario, if Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction contests 65 to 70 seats, they are likely to secure around 45 to 50 seats. Approximately 30 sitting MLAs are expected to win again, as they are strong candidates, and they may capture an additional 15 to 20 seats. On the other hand, Uddhav Thackeray’s faction is unlikely to surpass 50 seats, even if they contest 100. In the Maha Vikas Aghadi, Congress has emerged as the strongest party, followed by the NCP (SP), with Shiv Sena (UBT) coming in last.”

Parimal Maya Sudhakar, an associate professor at Pune’s MIT School of Government, also emphasised Shinde’s grassroots appeal. “Shinde is a grassroots player in contrast to Uddhav Thackeray,” he said. “He understands that he may not have the same level of charisma, so he compensates for it with his strong local connections. His extensive ground experience is instrumental in keeping his team united and effectively assigning roles to different factions within the same constituencies.”

He said that Thackeray has the charisma to draw crowds but “lacks the grassroots experience needed to manage the organisation and its cadre effectively”. “He tends to avoid micromanagement within the party. But one notable strength of Uddhav Thackeray is his ability to draw crowds, much like his father, Balasaheb Thackeray. While he possesses a unique charisma that captivates audiences, it doesn’t necessarily translate into electoral success for his party.”

Manisha Kayande, secretary and spokesperson for the Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, said that Shinde is willing to meet people even at 2 am. “What sets him apart is his approachability.”

A barrage of welfare schemes   

In its contest to the Thackeray legacy, the Shinde-led Maharashtra government has aligned itself with the legacy of Anand Dighe – a formidable force in Shiv Sena and among the people of Thane – and has launched a host of welfare initiatives.

While the welfare schemes are launched by the Mahayuti alliance – comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena and the NCP – political observers believe that they will significantly benefit Shinde’s Shiv Sena. Analyst Sudhakar said that among the Mahayuti allies, Shinde is poised to benefit the most from the announced welfare schemes primarily due to the media coverage. “The CM is often the face of these initiatives, and the public tends to associate welfare programmes directly with them.”

In the June budget session, the state government launched several women, youth, and farmers centric welfare initiatives. These include the Rs 46,000 crore annually budgeted for Ladki Bahin Yojana, under which underprivileged women would be eligible for a monetary aid of Rs 1,500 per month. It also announced Rs 10,000 crore for the Mukhya Mantri Yuva Karyaprashikshan Yojana, which focuses on training 10 lakh youth. The participants of the programme will receive a monthly stipend of Rs 10,000.

The government has also introduced the Rs 829 crore Mukhya Mantri Annapurna Yojna, providing three free cylinders each year to 52 lakh families. It has allocated Rs 14,761 crore in subsidies to assist over 44 lakh farmers under the Mukhya Mantri Baliraja Vij Savlat Yojna, and Rs 27,000 crore for the Magel Tyala Solar Pump Yojna to boost agricultural productivity. Furthermore, it announced a budget of Rs 5,190 crore for the Mahatma Jyotirao Phule Shetkari Karjmukti Yojana, which seeks to ease the debt burden faced by farmers.

Political dynamics favouring Shinde

The political landscape in Maharashtra has shifted in the wake of the Lok Sabha election results. Shinde’s standing in the state has strengthened with enhanced acceptability towards him as the CM. 

Sudhakar pointed out that the political challenges facing Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar have further amplified Shinde’s advantage. Fadnavis is grappling with pressure from both the factions within the party and the allies, while Pawar appears to have retreated following the NCP’s weak performance in the Lok Sabha polls.

Interestingly, the ongoing Maratha agitation is also working in Shinde’s favour. Manoj Jarange Patil, a leader of the Maratha reservation protests, and his supporters are focusing their criticism against Fadnavis and also long-time Maratha leaders who are aligned with Sharad Pawar and the Congress. Meanwhile, Shinde's identity as a Maratha CM has also strengthened his rapport with the community, enhancing his political capital.

Sudhakar added that the MLAs aligned with Shinde are influential within their constituencies. “The sitting MLAs of Shinde faction possess significant clout and influence in their respective areas. With the backing of the BJP, their chances of winning have increased markedly.”

Mumbai-based political analyst Harish Kerzarkar also noted the evolving leadership dynamics. 

“When Eknath Shinde split the Shiv Sena, his primary link to Delhi was Devendra Fadnavis. But Shinde has tactfully bypassed Fadnavis and has established a direct connection with Amit Shah, which has significantly contributed to his prominence in the state. This move has raised concerns among Maharashtra’s BJP leaders, who are not entirely comfortable with Shinde’s growing proximity to Delhi,” he said.

It’s noteworthy that the NCP’s Sharad Pawar and Shinde refrain from attacking each other. Kerzarkar said, “In fact, Pawar occasionally meets with Shinde, focusing his criticisms on Fadnavis, Shah, Narendra Modi, and Ajit Pawar. Shinde’s strong performance in the Lok Sabha elections has shifted the political landscape in his favour. As the upcoming assembly elections approach, he is putting in significant effort, personally visiting the constituencies of his MLAs and maintaining an active connection with Shiv Sena cadres throughout the state.”

Thackeray ‘squandered’ sympathy wave 

Newslaundry also spoke to Manohar Surve, 65, the shakha pramukh of Surve Wadi Shakha in Thane who described himself as a “hardcore loyalist” of the Thackerays. Surve still sees promise in the junior Thackeray.

“Balasaheb Thackrey always used to say that in political life, 80 percent should be social work and 20 percent should be politics. Uddhav Saheb follows that  same principle,” he said. “He is one of the most patient politicians I have ever seen in my entire career of over two decades as a Shiv Sainik. Many have doubted his leadership in the past as well but he sailed through and managed the party. Under his leadership, Shiv Sena managed to get more MLAs than what it used to get in the times of Balasaheb.”

Also in staunch support of Uddhav was Sushma Andhare, deputy leader and spokesperson of his party. She also called him a “calm and patient leader”, though she acknowledged “challenges” during the Lok Sabha polls due to “some fundamental issues”.

“In the Lok Sabha elections, we faced significant challenges due to our election symbol. While people recognise Uddhav Thackeray, many were unfamiliar with our Mashal symbol, leading to confusion, especially in remote areas where the bow and arrow symbol of the Shiv Sena was more ingrained in their minds,” Andhare said. “Additionally, we prioritised loyalty when issuing tickets rather than electoral merit, as we felt it was important to honour those who supported us during tough times. Moreover, our opponents had the advantage of financial backing, which further impacted our performance.”

Despite these setbacks, Andhare said she’s confident the party will change its fortunes in the Maharashtra polls. 

“For the upcoming assembly elections, we are committed to addressing these issues. We are conducting Mashal yatras in villages to raise awareness about our symbol, along with cultural programs to engage the community. This time, candidate selection will be based on thorough surveys, and winnability will be a key criterion in each constituency,” she said.

The Shiv Sena (UBT) and its allies are planning events through the state “to connect with the public on key issues”, she added, including unemployment, farmer rights, education, women’s safety, and the rights of workers in the unorganised sector.

“Our party has planned a three-phase tour across the state. In the first phase, I and other party leaders will engage with the people. In the second phase, Aditya Thackeray will travel across the state, followed by Uddhav Thackeray in the third phase, who will cover the entire state,” she said.

Analyst Kerzarkar said Uddhav’s “greatest asset” right now is the legacy of his father and the consequent support from Shiv Sena cadre. 

“Uddhav Thackeray aspires to be chief minister and did receive sympathy during the Lok Sabha elections, but his faction underperformed. The nine seats they won were largely due to the transfer of  Muslim and Dalit votes, traditionally aligned with the Congress and NCP, its alliance partners,” he said. 

But Kerzarkar doesn’t think this sympathy will “carry weight” in the upcoming polls. Instead, he predicts the UBT faction will “benefit from its alliance partners as their votes are expected to transfer smoothly to the UBT faction”. 

Sudhakar said Uddhav failed to capitalise on this “sympathy wave” during the Lok Sabha polls. 

“Thackeray isn’t doing badly, but he has wasted the potential and opportunities he had around the elections. He missed the chance to establish himself as a true leader. This happened because he and his team did not connect with a broader audience. He should take a lesson from Sharad Pawar, who is actively touring many constituencies and meeting local leaders with the help of his party workers,” he said.

Thanks to Pawar’s efforts, there’s a “growing number of local leaders eager to join the NCP-SP”, said Sudhakar, but this is a “distant dream” for Uddhav, who “has not made any real efforts to engage with potential supporters”.

“His faction still holds onto the old belief that new members should come to the party on their own, relying on the Thackeray family's charisma to win elections. But in the current political landscape, this approach will not work,” Sudhakar said. “In fact, after the Lok Sabha elections, Uddhav Thackeray went into a shell and was inactive for nearly two and a half months. Only in the last two weeks has he started to engage with people and conduct rallies. The only advantage Shiv Sena (UBT) might have in the upcoming elections is the support of Congress and NCP voters.”

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