Mr Prime Minister, you’ve been fact-checked

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent interview with Arnab Goswami was remarkable for a number of reasons, chief among them the Times Now Editor-in-Chief’s docile demeanour in stark contrast to his usual combative self.

During the interview, Modi made the tallest of claims, without once being challenged by Goswami. We at Newslaundry believe that no one is above scrutiny. Not ArGo, not NaMo. We are in the process of verifying whether this was indeed the first interview a sitting PM had given to a private news channel as Goswami claimed right at the start. In the meantime, here’s an analysis of the PM’s assertions with respect to the Indian economy.

1. On the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana:

Narendra Modi: “I had said that within a given timeframe, we will open bank accounts for the poor. For something that had not been done for 60 years, setting a timeframe for it was in itself a risk.”

Fact check: The Prime Minister’s claim that “something had not been done for 60 years”, referring to opening bank accounts for the poor, is patently false. Former finance minister Pranab Mukherjee launched a similar scheme in 2011 called Swabhimaan under the UPA government. While presenting the Union Budget for 2011-2012, the finance minister announced that under the scheme, banking services would be provided to 20,000 villages in the first year. Ultimately, the scheme ended up being merely an account-opening exercise.

Modi has definitely brought renewed vigour to the scheme – along with rebranding it – but to claim that this is the first time bank accounts were opened for the poor is factually incorrect.

Score: 0

NM: “The bank that he was seeing from afar, now he is able to enter that bank. This brings about a psychological transformation. Looked at in another way, did you ever imagine that 40 thousand crores could be injected into the banking system by contributions from the poor?”

Fact check: This claim is correct. Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana deposits, as of May, 2016, stand at Rs 38,048 crore.

Score: 1

2. On the Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana:

NM: “Now, like the initiative we have taken, we have started the Mudra Yojana. More than three crore people in the country comprise washermen, barbers, milkman, newspaper vendors, cart vendors. We have given them nearly 1.25 lakh crore rupees without any guarantee.

Now just think, when three crore of these small businesses have got access to finance, they must have expanded their work. Now all this is not in the Labour Department’s registration. Three crore people have expanded their work.” 

Fact check: The government too has claimed that under the Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana (PMMY), 3.5 crore beneficiaries have availed loans worth Rs 1.22 lakh crore. However, the effect the scheme has had in boosting entrepreneurship and providing employment in the unorganised sector cannot be measured, as the Prime Minister himself suggests.

Score: 0.5 (for unquantifiable effect)

3. On the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Beema Yojana:

NM: “After Independence, for the first time, we have brought in Pradhan Mantri Fasal Beema Yojana which can cover maximum number of farmers.”

Fact check: Crop insurance schemes have existed in India since 1985, when the Comprehensive Crop Insurance Scheme (CCIS) was launched by the Congress-led government. Since 1999, the National Agricultural Insurance Scheme (NAIS) and Modified National Agricultural Insurance Scheme (MNAIS) have been functioning. Claiming that the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Beema Yojana (PMFBY) is the first such scheme since Independence is thoroughly misleading. As for the claim that PMFBY “can cover maximum number of farmers”, it’s not possible to verify it as enrolment is still going on for the scheme.

Score: 0

NM: “The farmer will have to pay only 2%, only 2%, the government will take care of the rest.”

Fact check: Under the scheme, farmers will have to pay a premium of 1.5-2% for food grains and oilseed crops. Also for cotton or horticultural crops, the premium can be as high as 5%. In contrast, under NAIS, premium rates were 1.5-3.5% for food grains and oilseed crops. Also, under MNAIS, premium rates were 2-15% (actual premiums under MNAIS could run up to 57%).

Score: 1

4. On development of infrastructure:

NM: “You must have seen that the maximum electricity generation since Independence has occurred this year.”

Fact check: The Prime Minister’s claim is true, but PM Manmohan Singh could have made the same claim in 2007, 2012 and 2013, as could Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 2002. According to this government report (which traces the growth of India’s electricity sector), installed generating capacity has increased with every five-year plan from 1947-2015.

Score: 0.5 (half a point docked for taking credit where it’s not due)

NM: “The maximum amount of coal mined has been in this year.”

Fact check: According to this report from the National Statistical Organisation, production of coal and lignite has increased year-on-year between 2005 and 2014. Growth in coal production slumped between 2011 and 2012, but historically, production has yet to fall in absolute terms.

Score: 0.5 (see above)

NM: “The maximum length of roads being constructed daily is happening in this year.”

Fact check: Minister for Road Transport and Highways Nitin Gadkari too has claimed that the government is building roads at an all-time high rate of 20 kilometres per day. The data, however, says that since the NDA government came to power in 2014, the highest rate of road construction was 15.70 km/day between April 2015 and January 2016. Moreover, this rate was matched by the previous UPA government in 2012-2013.

Score: 0

NM: “The fastest loading and unloading of steamers at sea ports is happening now.”

Fact check: Data for container traffic (unloaded/loaded) is not publicly available beyond 2013-2014, so it isn’t possible to confirm the Prime Minister’s claim. There is, however, information available about the total cargo traffic at India’s major ports for 2015. The tentative estimate for total cargo handled in 2014-2015 is 5,81,344 thousand tonnes — against 5,55,487 thousand tonnes in 2013-2014, a projected growth of 4.65%. In absolute terms, the amount of cargo moved is the highest since 1994-95.

Score: 0.5 (the claim is only partially verifiable)

5. On food inflation:

NM: “You see the fast pace at which prices were rising under the previous government, today that speed has decelerated a lot. You can see the statistics, you will find it there.”

Fact check: While the PM is correct that food inflation is not as high as it was under the previous government, inflation for the month of May, 2016 was at 7.55%, the highest it has been since August, 2014. Two years of drought have definitely pushed the inflation up, but the government also had the advantage of historically low oil prices. Moreover, inflation has also been kept under check due to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) inflation policy, which involved keeping repo rates high, for which the Governor attracted criticism from the PM’s party.

Score: 0.5 (-0.25 each for taking undue credit AND unleashing Subramanian Swamy on Raghuram Rajan)

FINAL SCORE: 4.5/10. If only Arnab had done his job well, it would’ve saved us a lot of trouble.