Fact or fiction? The reality of the Muslim demographic problem

At an event in Agra on August 20, Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat raised the Sangh’s oft-repeated gripe about Indian Muslims out-breeding Hindus. He seemingly encouraged Hindus to keep up the pace, saying “there is no law that stops Hindus from producing more children” and blamed the “social environment” for the declining Hindu population. Following widespread criticism of Bhagwat’s statement, the RSS was forced to issue a clarification, stating that his actual intention was to demand “a common law about population growth applicable to all”.

Regardless of what Bhagwat’s ‘real intentions’ were, the RSS has made no secret that it feels India’s Hindu population is at risk of being eclipsed by Muslims. A former RSS ideologue (who did not wish to be named) told Newslaundry that the Sangh believes “for maintaining sovereignty, the composition of the democracy is important”. He also bemoaned that in India, politics is driven by “secularism which has devolved into minoritism” over “objectivity and truth”. As evidence that the demographic imbalance is real, he cited the research conducted by the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) – a think-tank that has researched the religious demographics of the Indian subcontinent and whose findings have appeared in the RSS mouthpiece Organiser.

J.K Bajaj, director of CPS, claims “there is no doubt” that Hindus will be a minority in erstwhile undivided India in the near future. To prove his point, Bajaj mentioned a “third order polynomial” graph from a research paper titled “Religious Demography of India” published by CPS:

A couple of things stand out if one peruses the said graph. First, it clubs together “adherents of religions of Indian origins” into one category – Indian Religionists, which includes Sikhs, Buddhists and Jains along with Hindus – and compares the decline of this section of the population to the rise in the numbers of Christians and Muslims, religions which have a foreign origin. Christians, who form just 2.3% of the Indian population, present a grave threat to Indian Religionists (or so the Sangh feels), surely because of their fervent proselytising.

Secondly, the graph doesn’t take into account the demography of India alone, but also that of Pakistan and Bangladesh, which makes sense considering that the Sangh still pines for the good old days of Akhand Bharat. While nostalgia never hurt anybody, the RSS might want to explain why it is still obsessed with the demographics of our neighbouring nations, especially since it cannot influence what goes on in them. As expected, Bajaj’s predictions, based on this graph, also feature the “Bharat khand”.

“Agle 30-40 saal me, Bharat khand me, jisme ye teeno desh aate hai [India, Pakistan and Bangladesh], Hindus ki jansankhya Muslims aur Christian ki sankhya se kam hogi.” [In the next 30-40 years, the population of Hindus will be less than that of Muslims and Christians combined in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh]

However, journalist Qamar Waheed Naqvi, who has written on this topic previously, suggests that the government’s own data weakens such claims. Naqvi points to Health Minister J.P. Nadda’s recent statement in the Rajya Sabha regarding India’s total fertility rate (TFR, the average number of children expected to be born per woman during her entire span of reproductive period). Naqvi highlighted the fact that “according to Nadda’s statement, TFR of 2.1, which is the replacement level, has been achieved in 24 states” (the replacement level is the rate at which the population remains stable). The highest TFR is found in the states of Bihar (3.4), Uttar Pradesh (3.1), Madhya Pradesh (2.9), Rajasthan (2.8) and Jharkhand (2.7), which Naqvi calls “the Hindi heartland”. “The question then arises that why is the fertility highest in the Hindi heartland?” Naqvi asked. “The reason is that these states are very backward. Their literacy rate is low, there is no economic prosperity and there are different kinds of taboos, all of which cause the fertility rate to increase. It has no relation to being a Hindu or a Muslim. In UP, fertility rates of Hindus are high while in Tamil Nadu they are low. Similarly, in UP fertility rates of Muslims are high whereas in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, they are low,” he said. He drew attention to states with a substantial Muslim population having TFR lower than the replacement level – Jammu and Kashmir (1.9) and Kerala (1.8).

For Bajaj though, relative fertility rates are more important than absolute values. “Fertility rates of Muslim women are coming down, but their difference with Hindu women isn’t. That is the source of [population] imbalance,” he said. According to data from the National Family Health Survey, between 1991-92 and 2005-06, the fertility rates of Hindu and Muslim women decreased by similar amounts – 21.5% and 22.9%, respectively. Further, latest census data shows that while the size of Hindu families has shrunk by 5%, the corresponding number for Muslim families is 11%.

Similarly, while agreeing that there is a reduction of the overall Muslim growth rate, Bajaj claimed that the fall in growth rate of the Hindu population is greater. “It [growth rate] has come down for both [Hindus and Muslims]. But the percentage difference in the fall has increased, which means that the imbalance will also increase,” he said. However, data from the last three censuses says otherwise. Growth rate of the Muslim population declined from 29.5% (1991-2001) to 24.6% (2001-2011), a reduction of 4.9%. For Hindus, the growth rate fell 3.6%, from 20.3% (1991-2001) to 16.7% (2001-2011). Clearly, the slowdown in the growth of the Muslim population exceeds that of Hindus.

Another widely held belief by many on the Hindu right is that polygamy plays a significant role in boosting the Muslim population. But Naqvi counters this, saying “since the per woman fertility rate remains the same, even if a man marries four women, the number of children remains the same”.
While facts which repudiate the Sangh’s assertions are offered every time the issue is brought up, it refuses to die down. When asked whether the RSS purposely uses this issue to exploit the insecurity of Hindu voters, the ex-RSS member responded that “the RSS’s position, which is in the national interest, should not be thought of as majoritarianism”. As it has positioned itself as champion of national interest, it would be foolish to expect the RSS to drop the ‘demographic question’ any time soon.