What the Dalai Lama’s visit to Tawang could mean for India’s relationship with China

There is an old Chinese saying attributed to Lao-Tze that goes, “Those who know, do not say; those who say, do not know”. The Dalai Lama, in all likelihood knows, but won’t say. In his usual way, he has given no definite answer to one of the most abiding questions surrounding him–that of his reincarnation. In a recent interview to talk show host John Oliver, he said he very possibly may be the last Dalai Lama, and at the same time he said, the next one will not be from communist China, even though China is resolute on anointing his successor.

Could the Dalai Lama be searching for his successor in Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh? And, is that why the Chinese government is so het up about his visit there? In November 2009, the Dalai Lama visited Tawang for four days, but the protest by the Chinese government was a lot more muted then than it is now. So, what has changed in the eight years since? Is it because his age has made the search for his successor more critical?

If the Dalai Lama were to reincarnate, there are only a few places to choose from, Nepal, Bhutan, Mongolia and India among them, Jayadeva Ranade, president of the Centre for China Analysis and Studies in Delhi, told Newslaundry. “Of these, China can easily strongarm the smaller countries, which leaves India as the only free and democratic country to choose his successor from,” he said.

This is just one among the many questions that have surfaced in the wake of his 12-day visit to the Northeast this month, which according to China has “severely damaged” its relations with India. His itinerary is full of activities befitting his stature as a religious leader — taking part in religious discourses, consecrating temples and giving talks. The official statement circulated by the Ministry of External Affairs emphasised the visit as religious and an internal matter of India, describing him as a “revered religious leader, who is deeply respected as such by the Indian people.” To keep a lid on speculation, the statement said, “No additional colour should be ascribed to his religious and spiritual activities and visits to various states of India.” And, “no artificial controversy should be created around his present visit to Arunachal Pradesh.”

Yet, controversy has been inexorable. It is not possible to separate the Dalai Lama’s religious identity from his political identity. No wonder, the Chinese keep a close scrutiny on his travels. When he visited Mongolia (where a large majority of the population follows Tibetan Buddhism) in November last year, China imposed retaliatory economic sanctions on it. A country that had apparently took to drinking less alcohol on the Dalai Lama’s bidding kowtowed to China’s coercion and announced that the Dalai Lama will not be welcomed again.

China has become increasingly hectoring on its claims on Arunachal Pradesh, asserting Tawang’s links to Tibet, and thus to China, particularly after the Dalai Lama declared that Tawang was part of India in 2008, giving up his earlier position that Tawang was historically Tibetan. Tawang, which has a sizeable Tibetan Buddhist population, is the birthplace of the sixth Dalai Lama, and the Tawang Monastery, which was founded in the 17th century, holds special significance, as the second largest Buddhist monastery, after the one in Lhasa, Tibet. Tawang is also the place where the Dalai Lama first entered India when he fled Tibet in 1959. He recently said, “When I revisit the Tawang area, I am reminded of the freedom that I had experienced for the first time (in 1959). That was the beginning of a new chapter in my life.”

India, meanwhile, is mulling a rail link that will connect Tawang, a flashpoint in India-China ties, with Bhalukpung, a city in Aruncahal Pradesh, as part of a broader strategic plan to protect its borders, and develop infrastructure to integrate Tawang with other cities in the northeast. China is none too pleased and has asked India to exercise “restraint” on the plan.

Add to all this, the Dalai Lama’s recent public outings in India and interactions with political leaders and state representatives, something that irks China to no end. In Arunachal Pradesh, he was welcomed by Union Minister Kiren Rijiju. In December 2016, he was invited to a function at Rashtrapati Bhavan, where he met with President Pranab Mukherjee, the first meeting between the Dalai Lama and a serving Indian president, much to China’s chagrin. Last month, he attended an international conference on Buddhism in Nalanda, where Union Minister Mahesh Sharma was present, and not surprisingly, China stridently objected to it.

When the Tibetan PM-in-exile, Lobsang Sangay was invited to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s swearing-in, many read the heralding of a new Tibet policy in the invitation. But there was very little to back the theory until recently. Writing on India’s Tibet policy earlier this year, Brahma Chellaney, professor at Centre for Policy Research, said, India, “must also reclaim its leverage on the Tibet issue — a leverage it remains very reluctant to exercise. Had China been in India’s place, it is unthinkable that it would have shied away from employing the Tibet card….” He further wrote, “Tibet is to India against China what Pakistan is to China against India. But China has had no hesitation in playing the Pakistan card against India….”

In the wake of recent irritants in the ties between China and India — China blocking India’s entry into NSG and the ban on Masood Azhar, its growing territorial claims and increasing cosiness with Pakistan — it seems India is not shying away anymore from reopening the Tibet issue. Ranade agrees that India’s message is clear. “We have our sensitivities, just like you have yours, and two can play this game.”

It is a good reminder in these times.