Qatar in Saudi sights: Will the ricochet hurt India?

A massive political earthquake shook the Gulf Region on June 5, 2017, when four Arab countries, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt led by Saudi Arabia severed all political, economic and diplomatic links with the tiny nation of Qatar, a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). These four countries were soon joined by Libya, Yemen and even the small island state of Maldives. Kuwait and Oman, the two remaining members of the GCC refused to follow Saudi Arabia’s lead.

Saudi Arabia asserted that it took the decision because of Qatar’s “embrace of various terrorist and sectarian groups aimed at destabilising the region,” such as the Muslim Brotherhood, Al Qaeda, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and groups supported by Iran. Qatar has vehemently denied that it supports terrorism, arguing that it has assisted the United States in the War on Terror and in the ongoing military intervention against ISIS.

Saudi Arabia and the others have declared they will halt all land, air and sea traffic to Qatar, eject its diplomats and order Qatari citizens to leave the Gulf States within 14 days.

Though the immediate causes of this seemingly drastic decision are not clear, problems between Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been brewing for some time.

For many years Qatar, buoyed by its huge earnings and prosperity on account of production and export of gas, has been trying to carve out a comparatively independent foreign policy which is at variance with the approach of Saudi Arabia and other major Arab nations. Tensions have grown as part of a tussle for regional leadership.

Qatar’s influential channel Al Jazeera which is extensively viewed in the region and outside often adopts positions which are critical of Saudi Arabia.

In April 2017, Qatar was involved in a deal with militants in Iraq and Syria to secure the return of 26 Qatari hostages, including Qatari royals. What possibly outraged Saudi Arabia and UAE was the large amount–around US $ 1 billion paid by Qatar to secure the deal.

Thereafter on May 27, Qatar’s Emir called up Iranian President Hasan Rouhani to congratulate him on his re-election. The call was seen as a clear, public defiance of Saudi Arabia’s efforts to create a united front against Iran which it sees as its implacable foe.

Russia, Turkey, Iran, France and Germany have supported an early, peaceful resolution of the dispute. The position of USA appears to be confusing and somewhat unhelpful. It seems quite plausible that King Salman of Saudi Arabia was emboldened to take this step because of the strong support he received from President Donald Trump during the latter’s visit to Riyadh on May 20, 2017.

It is unlikely that Qatar will agree to make its regional and international policies subservient to those of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries. It seems possible that the influence and clout of Russia, Iran and Turkey will increase in the region. It also seems probable that the USA will pro-actively seek quick closure on the issue. It is in America’s interest to see an expeditious normalisation as Qatar hosts the US Centcom Al Udeid air base with 100 aircraft and 10,000 military personnel.

Middle East and India

These developments are likely to have significant implications for India and Indians who make up the largest expatriate group in the region. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s diplomacy has helped India establish credible ties with Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, Qatar and Israel. This demonstrates a more self-assured approach by India in handling the growing opportunities and challenges in the region.

There are around 7 million people of Indian origin working in the Middle East region. The security and stability of the region is hence of paramount importance for India.

The Indian diaspora in the region remits home around US$ 40 billion a year. These funds are immensely valuable as they help India to manage its current account deficit.

Energy is another critical area of engagement. A fifth of India’s oil and about 65 per cent of gas comes from countries of the Middle East including Iran, Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and others.

The Qatar Crisis and India

External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj speaking on 5th June as these developments were unfolding asserted that this is an intra-GCC affair and will not have a significant impact on India or on Indians resident in that country or the region. This appears to be a somewhat simplistic reading of the situation. Or possibly, the full dimensions of the issue were not understood at the beginning of the crisis.

Travel for Indians to Qatar is unlikely to be affected as flights from India take the Persian Gulf route to Doha. The limits placed on airspace access by the Saudi-led grouping won’t have any significant impact over the Persian Gulf.

India’s Petronet LNG has declared that it does not expect any impact on gas supplies from Qatar. Petronet LNG, India’s biggest gas importer buys 8.5 million tonnes a year of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar under a long-term contract. It also buys additional volumes from Qatar under spot deals.

India is the third largest export destination for gas from Qatar (behind Japan and South Korea).Qatar is the largest supplier of LNG to India, accounting for over 65 per cent of India’s global import and 15 per cent of Qatar’s export of LNG.

Any confrontation or uncertainty in Qatar or the wider Gulf region can have serious adverse implications for India. Beyond a point, India cannot stay aloof and adopt a hands-off strategy. Keeping in view the range, expanse and depth of India’s interests in the region and India’s rapidly expanding political, economic and strategic profile, sooner or later India will have to get more vigorously engaged in dealing with developments in this crucial area.

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