#ElectionResults2017: Vikas stops BJP one short of 100 MLAs

As elections in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state Gujarat came to an end on December 14, pollsters took centre-stage. At least six of the leading organisations that put out exit polls soon after the close of voting predicted that the governing BJP in the state would have a three-digit victory in the 182-seat Assembly.

When results were declared four days later on Monday, none of them had got it right.

According to the Election Commission of India’s website, the BJP stopped one seat short of 100. The Congress won in 77 constituencies, NCP in 1, BTP in 2 and Independents in 3 seats.

Even though exit polls are tricky business, six pollsters – VMR, CVoter, CNX, CSDS, Today’s Chanakya and Axis – tried to call the crucial and bitterly-fought elections, and only one was close – India Today and Zee News’ Axis. It had projected 99-113 seats for the BJP and 68-82 for the Rahul Gandhi-led Congress.

Today’s Chanakya, which had correctly predicted the 2014 Lok Sabha elections as well as the Delhi and Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls, was surprisingly way off the mark. It gave as many as 135 seats (plus/minus 11) to the BJP, and just 47 seats (plus/minus 11) to the Congress.

As the EC declared the final results late on Monday, Republic’s CVoter’s projections were the second best. The CVoter exit poll had indicated a 108-seat BJP victory, and 74 seats for the Congress. C-Voter data was also used by CNN-News18.

Times Now’s VMR exit poll secured the third position in the exit poll accuracy ranking, as it predicted that the BJP would secure 109 of 182 seats and a 70-seat victory for the Congress.

CNX, whose data was used by NewsX, had given a 115-70 seat share to the BJP and Congress, while ABP’s CSDS had projected 117 seats for the BJP and 64 seats for the Grand Old Party.

Last but not the least was Today’s Chanakya, differing in real and projected results by a huge gap of 36 seats (plus/minus 11).

When major league pollsters were giving their opinions, TV channels also jumped into the race. NDTV’s Poll of Exit Polls, which was an aggregate of all exit polls, suggested that the BJP would win at least 111 seats – 19 more than the 92-majority mark. The broadcaster had projected that Congress would secure 71 seats.

While Axis was the closest to the real numbers in Gujarat, CVoter’s Himachal Pradesh projections were the most accurate.

At least three pollsters including India Today’s Axis, Times Now’s VMR and Today’s Chanakya predicted 50-plus seats for the BJP in the state, but Republic’s CVoter forecast 41. Coming to the Congress share, the closest to call was not just CVoter but also Times Now’s VMR.

In the final tally, the BJP won 44 seats. With EC data indicating 20-21 seats for the Congress on Monday night, both pollsters’ predictions were about four seats off. While CVoter had given the party 25 seats, VMR gave it 17.

Among others, India Today’s Axis projected a 51-16 vote share between the BJP and Congress in the state, CSDS predicted 38-29 and Today’s Chanakya indicated figures of 55-13.