What #GujaratElections2017 verdict means for BJP in 2019

The BJP will likely lose 40 to 80 Lok Sabha seats in 10 states if the general election due in 2019 is held now. The extrapolation is based on the Gujarat Assembly election 2017 verdict, in which the party won 99 seats compared to 115 in 2012.

The Gujarat data, when applied on the state’s 26 Lok Sabha constituencies, has the Congress winning nine seats. Further, another 6 seats are within a 5 per cent difference from the BJP. This reduction in nine seats from the BJP’s tally and a potential close shave in another six has strategic implications for the BJP.

The BJP won all of 26 constituencies in the 2014 polls and has a total of 282 MPs, without counting on its allies. If the party can lose almost a third of its Parliament seats in Gujarat, a stronghold, to the Congress, then the implications for Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh could also mean at least a net deficit of another 20-40 seats.

Further, with a potential alliance of the Samajwadi Party, the Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP would be hard pressed to repeat its 2014 performance and could face another 5-10 seats’ deficit in UP.

The four states (UP, Gujarat, Rajasthan and MP) together could put the BJP at a net deficit of 20-40 seats. If we add the six states of Maharashtra, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Jharkhand and Haryana, the BJP will be likely to face a potential net deficit of another 20-40 seats. The total at-risk seats would be in the 40-80 range.

Some pointers: Independent Jignesh Mevani’s votes in Vadgam (Patan constituency) were added to Congress votes. Other Congress-aligned parties, such as the Bharatiya Tribal Party’s votes in Vaghodia (Vadodara) and Morva Hadaf (Panchmahal), did not impact the Lok Sabha constituency outcomes.

New catchment areas

Given the potential deficits, the BJP would need to show more interest in the five large BJP “virgin” states – West Bengal, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Odisha and Kerala. Some of these states should expect to see increased BJP voter and membership drives, reaching out to leaders to join parties and increased pressure on the Congress.

New approach to allies?

Similarly, the BJP is likely to soften its position towards allies to make up for the math on potential voteshare erosion. For existing alliance partners such as the Shiv Sena or Janata Dal United, there will likely be a general accommodation by offering more ministerial berths at the Centre or power-sharing at the state-level (e.g. Shiv Sena in Maharashtra). In addition, one should not be surprised to see new potential pre-poll or post-poll alliances with any number of these parties, including the Telangana Rashtra Samiti in Telangana, the Nationalist Congress Party in Maharashtra, the Biju Janata Dal in Odisha and Vijaykanth or the DMK in Tamil Nadu.