Karnataka polls: BSP’s entry is BJP’s gain

The tight electoral tussle that has already begun in Karnataka between the Congress and BJP has started dragging in some of the minor players to the southern state’s politics, amid fears that this can queer the pitch for either this or that party.

Only the other day, Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) announced its jump into the polls, slated for early this summer, in alliance with former chief minister HD Kumaraswamy’s Janata Dal (Secular).

This has brought cheer in the BJP camp, since the governing party at the Centre hopes it will write off the possible loss of votes that the somewhat fearsome Ram Sene chief Pramod Muthalik has been planning to inflict upon the BJP, and inadvertently help the Congress retain power in the state.

Known for his vigilante-style, fierce and strident brand of Hindutva – after the Ram Sene attacked a Mangalore pub some nine years ago on Valentine’s Day – Muthalik has recently sworn allegiance to the Shiv Sena. Now, it is under Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena’s banner that he wants to field some 50-odd candidates, mostly in north Karnataka, to settle old scores with the BJP and ruin its chances in the battle for the 224-strong Assembly.

Muthalik had once joined the BJP but was chucked out from the party within a day, or in fact within a few hours, and ever since he has become a staunch critic of not only the BJP but also the RSS. Earlier, he was expelled from the Bajrang Dal.

He fought the last Lok Sabha elections as an Independent from two constituencies in Karnataka but lost badly in both. Of late, he has not only been warming up to the Shiv Sena but also met Vishwa Hindu Parishad leader Pravin Togadia in the wake of allegations that the VHP leader could possibly be eliminated in a police encounter.

The meeting of the two Hindutva leaders who became estranged with the top BJP leaders was reported by a Kannada TV channel and can still be accessed.

Muthalik soon alleged that the BJP was not only baying for Togadia’s blood but was also after him.

The BJP’s relationship with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra is already under a strain. By using Muthalik’s anger against the BJP, the Sena can well cast a shadow on the party’s fortunes in Karnataka; in areas like Belgaum that border Maharashtra, it can get a bit of presence.

The BJP bosses, in private talks, however, dismiss both Muthalik and other Sena satraps as non-serious mavericks who are not going to make much of a difference though they may be going around swearing to take revenge against the BJP’s best bet, BS Yeddyurappa, for the post of Karnataka CM.

Yet, in what is likely to be a neck-and-neck battle between the Congress and BJP, two of Yeddyurappa’s close aides – whom the writer of these lines happened to meet in Delhi last Friday – say that HD Kumaraswamy (who once became CM with BJP support) stands to gain ground due to his party’s alliance with the BSP. And this is not going to affect the BJP at all, because Kumaraswamy and BJP’s support base are essentially quite different.

To bolster this argument is also the refrain that both the Congress and Kumaraswamy, courtesy BSP’s support, would be vying for the same Dalit votes and the BJP cannot hope to get much of it in any case.

Thus, the pre-poll tie up between the JD (S) and BSP, according to them, should be a cause of worry for the Congress and its CM, S Siddaramaiah, rather than the BJP.

The BSP had once won a lone Assembly seat in Karnataka. And this was at least over a decade ago, though a candidate from BSP’s rival Samajwadi Party made it to the Karnataka Vidhan Sabha in the 2013 polls.

This time, the BSP plans to contest 20 Assembly seats. Of these, eight are said to be reserved while 12 seats are from the unreserved or general category. These seats have already been identified by the two alliance partners.

Moreover, the Karnataka polls are going to be a precursor to next year’s countrywide general elections and, thus, Mayawati’s foray into the South to find a foothold through Dalit votes is going to be contested in all likelihood by a new and emerging Dalit leader like Jignesh Mevani from the Congress’ side.

This is seen by BJP poll managers as a welcome sign because multiple Dalit voices, or at least more than one, can blunt the edge that the Dalit voters could give to the opposition parties at the national level when general elections or polls in other states are held. More so since the 2019 showdown is rumoured to be advanced by a few months and can well be held before 2018 ends.