DMK’s role as kingmaker could prevail even after Kalaignar’s death

The death of Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam patriarch Muthuvel Karunanidhi, known as Kalaignar, has put his family and the party under enormous pressure to keep their fold together, given the contradictions and conflicting interests among several family members. Karunanidhi’s son MK Stalin, currently working president, is set to take over as the president of the DMK under a new dispensation of Gen Next.

Karunanidhi’s daughter MK Selvi is said to have initiated efforts to bring about a consensus in the families (Karunanidhi has two wives, and six children in all), particularly for unity between Stalin and his brother MK Alagiri, former Union minister and co-ordinator of DMK’s southern region.

With Karunanidhi having already expelled Alagiri in 2014 from the party, stating it was because of alleged anti-party activities, it is an uphill task for Alagiri to secure an important position in the party even if he is re-admitted. It is said that a compromise would be a post in the youth wing of the DMK. It may be remembered that Stalin took an important step in his political career when he was made youth wing general secretary in 1984. Karunanidhi indicated then that this was a stepping stone for Stalin, and thus the preparation for success began 34 years ago.

Since then, Stalin has made a steady but sure rise to the top. He is now a six-time MLA having been first elected to the Tamil Nadu Assembly in 1989, after a failed attempt in 1984. It was only after Stalin took over as Mayor of Chennai Corporation that Alagiri raised the banner of revolt against Stalin’s elevation. Then Karunanidhi expelled him from the party. Alagiri put up a fight by supporting rebel candidates against the DMK in the 2001 Assembly elections. Though they did not win, it took away about 2 to 3 per cent of DMK votes, which also contributed to the defeat of the DMK.

The DMK’s loss of power led to a reconciliation with Alagiri but his demands kept increasing, as he considered himself senior to Stalin, being the older brother. Karunanidhi placated him by giving him an MP ticket and he was appointed Union minister under UPA rule, besides a senior party post of DMK South Coordinator. However, at every step, Karunanidhi elevated Stalin too, making him State minister, deputy chief minister, party treasurer, and working president in 2017 when he fell ill. Karunanidhi again removed Alagiri from the DMK, after Alagiri protested against the prominence given to Stalin and issued a statement that Stalin would not live long.

Alagiri’s expulsion and Karunanidhi’s ill-health meant that Stalin virtually took over the party, and had his men in all crucial positions, especially as district secretaries. Stalin is now Leader of the Opposition in the State Assembly and party working president.

In 2017, after the DMK’s loss in the RK Nagar by-election, Alagiri’s statement—that the DMK could never hope to win elections with Stalin as leader—further widened the chasm.

With Stalin anointment as president expected in the next few weeks, the question is whether Alagiri is prepared to accept Stalin’s leadership and accept political rehabilitation in the form of a lower post. Sources close to Alagiri say that is why his son Dayanidhi Alagiri could be given a party post, in the youth wing, to give representation to his family. The Stalin family wants the youth wing secretary post for Stalin’s son, Udhayanidhi Stalin, an actor and film producer, who is often seen on party platforms and all important party meetings, and is touted as Stalin’s successor in the party. Selvi is trying to work out a patch-up here.

Karunanidhi’s other son, MK Tamilarasu, has kept away from politics and concentrates on his business. However, his son Arulnidhi has entered the film arena as an actor, and he could be groomed for a political career as well.

Kanimozhi could be on a sticky wicket, though at the moment she is party MP. Being the daughter of Karunanidhi’s third wife Rajathi Ammal, she has to fend for herself without any lobby for her in the second family of Dayalu Ammal.

Murasoli Maran’s sons and Karunanidhi’s grand-nephews, Kalanidhi and Dayanidhi Maran—powered by the popular TV channel Sun TV—were sidelined a few years ago, after their newspaper Dinakaran published a survey on popularity of DMK leaders which gave a low ranking to Alagiri and Stalin. Dayanidhi Maran is no longer the party’s pointsman in Delhi, this post having informally been given to Kanimozhi by Karunanidhi. In the absence of Karunanidhi, Stalin may assign the work of liaison to another MP in Delhi in whom he has more confidence.

Karunanidhi was able to elevate the DMK from a regional party in Tamil Nadu to an important role in the national sphere, through his clever backdoor manoeuvres and association extensive contacts with national leaders. When the Congress split in 1969, Karunanidhi and his 18 MPs provided crucial support to Indira Gandhi. The DMK again forged an alliance with the Congress in 1971, and their alliance swept the Lok Sabha polls from Tamil Nadu, helping her form the government.

However, they fell out in the Seventies as the Congress was seen supporting MGR in his struggle against Karunanidhi. The advent of Emergency saw the Karunanidhi government being ousted. The DMK supported the Janata Party and government from 1977 till 1979. Karunanidhi again aligned with Indira Gandhi for the 1980 Lok Sabha elections, and this again turned out to be a crucial factor in the formation of the government in 1980.

Karunanidhi again emerged kingmaker in 1989, when the DMK helped VP Singh become PM. In 1996, Karunanidhi was part of a new group—the United Front—whose Deve Gowda and later IK Gujral became PMs. In 1999, he threw his lot with AB Vajpayee’s Bharatiya Janata Party, being part of the National Democratic Alliance till 2004. When he moved to the UPA, this became a major turning point in the 2004 elections as the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-BJP alliance was routed. Karunanidhi was a solid pillar of support for both the United Progressive Alliance-1 and -2 governments till 2014.

Stalin has continued on this path, and forged contacts with a wide spectrum of regional and national leaders. He has met with Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress and Chandrababu Naidu of the Telugu Desam Party, while establishing close links with Sitaram Yechury of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and D Raja (Communist Party of India), Deve Gowda of Janata Dal (Secular), Akhilesh Yadav (Samajwadi Party), and Sharad Pawar (Nationalist Congress Party)—besides national leaders from the Congress and BJP. He has had good equations with Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi. The DMK could again play an important role in creating opposition unity among the Congress and other parties opposed to the BJP.

Stalin has already projected himself as a force in favour of federalism and secularism, and against communalism. The alliance of regional parties—even if not a formal one—could cause damage to the BJP’s plan of returning to power in 2019. In that sense, the DMK could continue to be a key player in government formation at the Centre.

Stalin’s participation in the swearing-in ceremony of HD Kumaraswamy as Karnataka CM along with opposition leaders saw the beginning of a formation to take on the BJP. Many of them came to Chennai on August 8, to share their grief with Stalin over the loss of Karunanidhi. In the days to come, we could see more meetings of opposition leaders.

It is not yet known if the DMK will support Rahul Gandhi or Mamata Banerjee as PM in a pre-poll projection, or will suggest a consensus on PM choice in a post-poll context. However, it is almost certain that the DMK will be part of an alliance that will take on the BJP in Tamil Nadu and at the national level.