#ExitPolls: Congress likely to bag Rajasthan, close contest in MP and Chhattisgarh

With the election results of five states all set to be declared on December 11—barely a few months away from the national election—all eyes are on the exit polls that were announced on Friday.

Voters in Telangana and Rajasthan cast their votes today, December 7, and registered a voter turnout of 67 per cent and 72.62 per cent respectively. Elections have already previously taken place in Chhattisgarh, Mizoram and Madhya Pradesh.

Even though exit polls could be considered a prelude to what will go down on Tuesday when the election results actually come out, it should be mentioned—at the outset of this article—that exit polls do indeed often get it wrong. Having said that, it will definitely be interesting to see whether the BJP can paint the town saffron in the states it already governs, or whether the Congress can make inroads in the states of Telangana and Mizoram.

Numerous exit polls as of now show that it’s too close to call between the BJP and the Congress in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, whereas in Rajasthan, a heavy win for the Congress has been predicted. In Telangana, they favour Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao’s Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) retaining the state. In Mizoram, the Mizo National Front looks likely to form a simple majority.

A strong revival of the grand old party has been predicted in Rajasthan, with nearly all the exit polls giving the Congress more than 100 seats out of 199. The India Today exit poll predicted that the Congress would score a slam dunk in the state. It gave the party anywhere between 119-141 seats out of a total of 199, whereas the BJP was given 55-72. The Republic-CVoter exit poll gave the Congress 129-145 seats and the Times Now-CNX exit poll gave it 105 seats. NewsX-Neta predicted that the Congress would end up with 112 seats, the BJP with 80, and others with 7.

The exit polls seem to have mixed feelings about Chhattisgarh, which comprises a total of 90 assembly seats. An India TV exit poll predicts that Raman Singh’s BJP will retain power in the state, with anywhere between 42-50 seats, while the Times Now-CNX exit poll survey gave the BJP 46 seats. However, the India Today-Axis poll shows that the Congress might bag a whopping 55-65 seats. Today’s Chanakya, too, predicted anywhere between 42-58 seats for the Congress. However, News X-Neta, News Nation and Republic TV all think that the state is too close to call.

Keeping in mind that exit polls are nothing more than mere predictions and have turned out wrong more than a fair share of times, primetime anchors on various news channels decided to go into primetime-mode by 7 pm. However, as it turns out, they were not well-prepared. It was all fun and banter in Arnab Goswami’s packed “Double-Exclusive Exit Poll”—till one of the guests pointed out that a graphic up on the screen was not correct. The numbers didn’t tally and Arnab had to ask someone to fix the mistake. Meanwhile, on India Today, Rajdeep Sardesai was reminded by BJP spokesperson Amit Malviya that “the way you got my name wrong, you might get the exit poll wrong too”.

In the state of Shivraj Singh Chauhan-led Madhya Pradesh, it seems like it will be a tough fight between the BJP and the Congress. According to the Republic-CVoter survey, the Congress is set to bag 110-126 seats out of 230. However, India TV predicted that the BJP will get a clear majority with 122-130 seats, and Times Now gave the party 126 seats. Exit polls of News X-Neta, Today’s Chanakya, and News Nation showed that it could turn out to be a nail-biting finish in the state.

Two exit polls showed that in India’s youngest state—Telangana—K Chandrashekhar Rao’s TRS would get a clear majority and go on to form the state’s second legislative assembly. Others forecast the possibility of a hung assembly. The India Today-My Axis poll predicted that TRS would nail anywhere between 79-91 seats, the Congress would get 21-33 seats, the BJP 1-3, and others 4-7. Times Now-CNX predicted a win for the TRS with 66 seats, while News X-Neta predicted a hung assembly, with the TRS winning 57 seats and the Congress 46.

Lastly, in Mizoram, it looks like the Mizo National Front (MNF) will finish first, with the Congress coming in at second place. According to the India Today-My Axis Poll, the MNF is likely to win anywhere between 16-22 seats, thereby giving it a simple majority to form the government in the state. The Republic-CVoter exit poll survey gave the MNF and the Congress anywhere between 16-22 and 8-12 seats respectively, with others winning 0-3 seats. News X said the Congress would go on to win 15 seats and the MNF 19. Times Now predicted that the MNF would go on to win 18 seats, the Congress 16, and others 6.