In Surat, will traditional BJP voters rally behind AAP this time?

In Surat, where the BJP won 15 of the 16 assembly seats in 2017 elections, finishing at its lowest number in Gujarat in decades, the party is now facing the AAP as its principal challenger this time.

“This time the Delhi model will prevail over the Gujarat model. What the AAP government did in Delhi has also been implemented in Punjab. In such a situation, the people of Gujarat feel that no one apart from Kejriwal can do anything. Inflation is increasing here every day but the income is not,” said Kundan Bhai, a resident of Kathiawar who runs a shop in Varachha, and whose family has always supported the BJP.

He is not alone. “I used to vote for BJP earlier, but this time I am not doing so. You see, how much public support Arvind Kejriwal is getting in the road show. We see the work that has been done in the education sector in Delhi. We want that here too so that our children get a better future,” said Piyush Siroya, another Surat resident.

While Gujarat clocks high growth, income hasn’t increased for all, and it continues to fare poorly on several socio-economic indicators such as education. According to the 2011 census, it ranked 17th among states and union territories With a 78 percent literacy rate. And less than 55 percent of class 5 students from government schools could read class 2 texts as per a report published in 2018 by the non-profit ASER Centre.

It is against this backdrop that the AAP, led by its chief Arvind Kejriwal and Gujarat CM candidate Isudan Gadhvi, is throwing all its weight behind the party’s campaign in Surat, with huge crowds attending its public meetings . Delhi CM Kejriwal and Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann have done several road shows, several party leaders, including MLAs and workers from Punjab, have spent considerable time in the district, and Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh camped for a week in Surat.

After all, it was in Surat where the AAP tasted huge electoral success in the municipal elections, bagging 27 seats, and replacing the Congress as the principal opposition to the BJP.  The Congress is even largely missing from people’s conversations in Surat.

Surat goes to polls on Thursday in the first phase of the election whose results will be announced on December 8.

The AAP campaign in Surat

At a roadshow last week, Kejriwal raised the issue of paper leaks, claiming that his government had given jobs to 12 lakh youths in Delhi over eight years. It was met with huge applause, but a report in the Hindu had found a similar claim by his deputy Manish Sisodia misleading.

“Arvind Kejriwal himself is very educated. He is giving better education and employment to the youth in Delhi and Punjab. We have very few vacancies and even if they come, then the paper gets leaked. We gave a chance to the BJP for 27 years. What did we get? Unemployment and inflation? They should also be given a chance once. If they don’t do it, we will remove them too,” said Anurag, who is unemployed and whose family came to Surat from Bihar three decades ago.

Vithalbhai, from Saurashtra, said he was a BJP supporter but will vote for the AAP this time. “Most of our money is spent on education. There are neither good government schools nor colleges here. Inflation has increased while the income has decreased. In such a situation, the spending on educating children and hospitals isi becoming untenable. That's why all of us want Kejriwal's government…if he works, people will get major relief.”

The sentiment on the quality of public education can be gauged from what a youth at a Yogi Adityanath rally told Newslaundry – that he doesn’t study in a government institute because of lack of quality.

The AAP, on its part, also realises that Surat may hold the keys to its electoral success. At the roadshow, Kejriwal said, “People of Surat, save our honour. Give us a victory on all seats.”

According to the party, it began its groundwork in Surat right after the civic elections last year, when the Congress failed to win a single seat. 

“We were already working in areas where we won the elections, but we were also listening to public complaints where we did not win and taking them up with authorities. If a road was broken, we filed an application…the party expedited this. The organisation expanded. People were given responsibility. We started explaining the Delhi model to people,” an AAP worker from Surat said.

However, according to a senior leader who was not given a ticket, the AAP is only strong in Varachha Road, Surat North, Karanj and Katargam, where the party’s state president Gopal Italia is in the fray. “The party is winning three seats from here. Katargam, Varachha Road and Karanj. The caste equations favour us. The party is giving a good fight in Kamrej and Olpad.”

However, according to Surat (East) Congress office chief Dharmesh B Mistry, the fight is between the BJP and the Congress, and the AAP’s campaign is only a media hype. Mistry said the AAP will not win any seat and the elections will prove it. It is not that the Congress has ignored Surat. Party leader Rahul Gandhi’s first rally in Gujarat was in Surat.

Even the BJP has pulled out all stops, with rallies by prime minister Narendra Modi and roadshows by UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath and party leader Ravi Kishan – in an attempt to woo the large population of migrants in the district.

However, according to Patidar leader Alpesh Katharia, who is contesting from Varachha against former AYUSH minister Kishore Bhai Kanani, “The Gujarat model is just made-up…People have made up their mind to give us five years. The BJP candidates here are former ministers. Now there will be former MLAs and they shall remain former.”

Formerly with the Congress, Kathiria said, “There is no better party than the Congress, but our leaders have forgotten how to fight…who will win, we’ll know on the eighth.”