MP polls: Chouhan faces uphill task amid anti-incumbency, murmurs of BJP ‘sidelining’ him

There has been speculation about an unease within the BJP’s central leadership about Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who is now eyeing a fifth term in the state which will go to polls on November 17.

Tickets have been granted to several national BJP leaders, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the face of the party’s campaign unlike the last election, and the party has been silent on its CM pick for Madhya Pradesh. 

“Should I become the chief minister again or not?... Should Modi-ji become the prime minister or not?” Chouhan had asked at a rally in Dindori on October 6, in statements that were seen as a challenge to the central leadership. This had come amid rumours that the party would deny him a ticket, but he was later granted a ticket to contest from Sehore’s Budhni segment.

Some might believe Chouhan is eligible for a bigger role, having been CM four consecutive times, and leading a campaign to win 109 seats for the BJP in an election in which as many as 13 state ministers had lost due to anti-incumbency in 2018. 

The Congress had then managed to win just five more seats than the BJP despite its  campaign being driven by three prominent state leaders: Kamal Nath, Digvijaya Singh and Jyotiraditya Scindia. Its government, however, had collapsed within 15 months with Scindia’s rebellion and subsequent defection to the BJP camp.

And the Congress is now hoping to wrest power in the state while upping the ante around the caste census.

‘Modi in MP’s heart’

Associated with the RSS since his early years, Chouhan has tried to retain his image as a grassroots leader despite the Vyapam scam taint. In his most recent term as CM, however, he also attempted to project himself as “bulldozer mama” amid the rising popularity of his Uttar Pradesh counterpart’s bulldozer justice among BJP supporters. But it appears this hasn’t done much to boost his chances as the BJP’s campaign this time indicates that the party brass doesn’t fully trust Chouhan’s leadership. 

PM Modi, in his 10 visits to Madhya Pradesh over the last five months, has only cursorily mentioned Chouhan on stage, and unlike the last time, it is the PM’s face that dominates all campaign material online and offline. Even the BJP’s social media campaign is termed “MP ke mann mein Modi (Modi in MP’s heart)”.

The BJP so far has announced 136 candidates in four separate lists for elections to the 230-seat assembly. Scindia’s name is speculated to find space in the fifth.

In seven constituencies, the BJP has fielded national-level leaders, including union ministers Narendra Singh Tomar, Prahlad Patel, Faggan Singh Kulaste, BJP’s national general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya, Jabalpur MP and MP BJP’s former president Rakesh Singh, Satna MP Ganesh Singh, and Sidhi MP Riti Pathak.

Tomar holds sway in the Gwalior–Chambal region, and Prahlad Patel in the Mahakaushal region. Kulaste will contest from the tribal region of Mandla where he has a support base. Kailash Vijayvargiya, a veteran from Indore, has been fielded from Malwa Nimar Anchal. Ganesh Singh and Riti Pathak will assert their political prowess in Vindhya.

“The Madhya Pradesh election is crucial for the BJP as its effect will also be felt in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The important thing is that it seems difficult for the party to win this election. That is why the reins of this election are not in Bhopal’s but in Delhi’s hands and so many central leaders are in the field,” said a Madhya Pradesh BJP leader.

According to sources, state BJP leaders have no role in the election strategy this time and Union minister Bhupendra Yadav, who is the MP election incharge, and Ashwini Vaishnav, who is the co-incharge, report directly to PM Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah.

A leader who has arrived in the state from Delhi said that Chouhan has been the BJP’s face for the “last two decades” and “this has brought about weariness”. “Anti-incumbency has increased a lot. That is why the party has decided to sideline him.”

However, a few leaders from Madhya Pradesh claim that this is because several leaders from Delhi hace repeatedly sought Chouhan’s removal as the CM face. 

Amid such murmurs, Chouhan has tried to navigate the campaign with attempts to display his support base and signal to the BJP that he is the state unit’s best bet. The Ladli Bahna Yojana, the Mukhyamantri Seekho Kamao Yojana, the Kisan Samman Nidhi, etc. are part of these efforts. Also, the way he has staked his claim, some allege, is a sign of a section of the RSS leadership siding with him.

Rajendra Sharma, a senior journalist from Bhopal, said, “The BJP is avoiding Shivraj right now. Actually, there is very strong anti-incumbency against Shivraj…People want change, they have been seeing only one face for the last 16 years.”

Sharma claimed that an entire generation of political leadership feels that if Chouhan is chosen again, their careers will be finished. “Everything will depend on the party’s performance and the numerical strength of Chouhan’s support base.”

A senior BJP leader in Gwalior–Chambal said there are seven leaders competing with Shivraj Singh Chouhan. “Whoever performs well will be a claimant for the CM post.”

Another state leader said the fielding of other leaders will benefit the party. “The Congress is targeting only Shivraj Singh Chouhan but it does not have much to say against the other seven faces. Neither is the election being contested under Shivraj’s leadership nor is he the candidate for the CM post. This has reduced anti-incumbency.”

Bhopal-based journalist Milind Ghatwai said the BJP is sidelining Shivraj Singh Chouhan “but it is forgetting that the BJP did not reap much benefit in Karnataka after fighting the whole election with Modi’s face”.