The Punjab test: How the stage is set for a quadrangular contest on June 1

With the completion of the sixth phase of the ongoing Lok Sabha polls, it’s Punjab’s turn. Voting in its 13 Lok Sabha constituencies is scheduled for June 1, in a contest whose contours seem considerably altered since the last polls of 2019. The relative strength, alignments and strategies of key players reflect the new political setting in the state, and their implications for voters’ electoral choices.

The nature of the contest has been shaped by factors linked to this reordering, some of which can be seen as setting the stage for June 1. 

First, the five years between 2019 and 2014 has seen the Aam Aadmi Party forming a new government in the state in 2022. The Lok Sabha polls offer the party a chance to reassert its hold on the popular mandate in the state. At the same time, the opportunity is a test for the party, beleaguered by corruption charges and the arrest of its national top brass in Delhi.

Even if the electoral impetus of the assembly polls is different from a general election, the AAP will be watched for how it holds its ground in the only full-fledged state where it is in power. In 2019, the AAP could only win the Sangrur seat and its vote share in Punjab was merely seven percent. It would hope to improve its vote share significantly and add to its tally of seats in the state.

Second, the AAP’s key rival in the state is, ironically, the Congress, which is also its ally in the INDIA bloc and a party with which it has a seat-sharing pact in Delhi. In Punjab, these two parties failed to reach a poll pact and are contesting against each other. This isn’t unexpected, given that the Congress is the key opposition party in the state and was unseated from power by the AAP in the 2022 assembly polls. The state leadership and workers of both parties couldn’t see much political merit in coming together for the Lok Sabha polls. 

The Congress will be looking to either replicate or improve its 2019 performance in Punjab, when it won eight seats and got a 41 percent vote share. In its bid to retrieve ground it lost in the assembly polls, a robust show in the Lok Sabha polls would send a strong message. That’s why the state unit of the party dissuaded the central leadership from having any truck with the AAP in Punjab, even though they are allies in the INDIA bloc. The central leadership would, therefore, be expecting the state unit to get its act together and vindicate the decision to go alone in the state.

Third, the political reset in recent years has turned the 2019 triangular contest – between Congress, AAP, and alliance of Bharatiya Janata Party and Shiromani Akali Dal – into a quadrangular clash after the snapping of the ties between the BJP and SAD. In September 2020, the SAD walked out of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance following disagreements over the farm laws and the resultant protests in Punjab. 

Both parties are contesting this election separately, adding a distinct element to polls in the state. In 2019, the BJP secured a vote share of nine percent and two seats, while the SAD got 28 vote share and only two seats too.

In its bid to rebuild with core voter groups, the SAD has foregrounded the panthic character of the party, emphasising the interests of Punjab as its core concern. The party is eyeing a road to recovery after its dismal results in the last two assembly polls, and given that its bereft of any heft at the centre. In fighting alone, it would hope to show signs of its old appeal by finding a voice in the Lok Sabha and then trying for a return to power in the state in the 2026 assembly polls. That, however, seems a tough ask, given the current reset in state politics.

Fourth and finally, the end of ties with the SAD has meant that the BJP has now shed its junior partner tag and is charting its own course in Punjab. This has seen the party working on its organisational spread in the state. In its search for support, the BJP has reached out to the Sikh community and roped in leaders like former Chief Minister Amarinder Singh and Gurmir Singh Sodhi, both of whom joined the BJP after leaving the Congress.

At the same time, the BJP leadership is keen to win the support of Scheduled Castes, who constitute nearly 32 percent of the state’s population. The electoral significance of this large electoral segment implies that, along with parties like the Congress, the BJP will have to contend with the Bahujan Samaj Party, which is trying to regain its support base among this group. Once thought to be making inroads into the Dalit vote base in Punjab, the BSP still hasn’t realised its potential in the state. This has opened avenues for other bigger parties – a scenario the BSP seems aware of and would like to assert a firm foothold in Punjab.

Besides these aspects, voter behaviour will be watched for how the key Congress-AAP duel will be swayed, whether by a vote for the incumbent AAP government in the state or for the BJP-led government at the centre. The Congress would hope that anti-incumbency works against both, particularly against the AAP’s unfulfilled promises. However, the four-cornered contest is a new element to be factored in terms of vote configuration. Both the AAP and Congress will keep an eye on how voter groups of the SAD and BJP can affect the final vote share distribution.

Ruling out the fifth factor, with the BSP lacking its old spark, the quadrangular stage for the 13th Lok Sabha constituencies is all set.

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