Exit polls: Modi to return with historic mandate, 3 say BJP largest party in Bengal

If exit polls are to be believed, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set for a historic third term with a landslide mandate. The National Democratic Alliance, led by the BJP, is expected to make inroads into the south, and win big in Odisha, and West Bengal in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the campaigner-in-chief for the NDA, has addressed more than 150 public meetings compared with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s 72 during the Lok Sabha elections, which concluded today. The results will be declared on June 4.

All 11 key exit polls predict that the NDA will easily surpass the 350-mark out of the total 543 Lok Sabha seats. The tally is similar, or even better in some cases, to the NDA’s victory in the previous Lok Sabha polls. For the Congress-led INDIA alliance, the predictions range between 107 and 182 seats, with the exception of Dainik Bhaskar which has predicted 201 seats for the INDIA bloc.

Three exit polls – Today’s Chanakya, India TV-CNX and India Today-Axis My India – expect the NDA to touch the 400-mark. Notably, the BJP’s campaign slogan was “Ab ki baar, 400 paar (This time, above 400)”.

In the battleground states of Maharashtra, Bihar and West Bengal, the BJP is expected to be ahead of the INDIA bloc. At least three exit polls predicted that the BJP will emerge as the largest party in West Bengal. 

India Today-Axis My India has predicted 26-31 seats for the BJP against the Trinamool Congress’s 11-14 in West Bengal. In the last elections, the BJP had won 18 out of the 42 seats in the state. 

Despite a multiplicity of players in Maharashtra, the survey predicts the NDA is likely to win 28-32 seats against INDIA bloc’s 16-20. In 2019, NDA bagged 41 of the total 48 seats. In Bihar, Axis My India projects NDA to win 29-33 seats out of the total 40.

But the exit polls need to be taken with a pinch of salt. The case in point: In the 2023 assembly polls across five states of Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram and Telangana, pollsters faltered in all but one state. Leave alone the seat tally, they also failed to predict the winner.

But what about the 2019 Lok Sabha exit polls? As many as 13 exit polls predicted that the NDA would secure a seat tally of 303 against the Congress-led UPA’s 120. The NDA won 353 seats with a vote share of 45.3 percent, while the UPA won 93 with a vote share of 27.5 percent.

For the current elections, NDTV’s poll of exit polls, an average of at least 10 predictions, shows 366 seats for NDA, 144 for INDIA bloc and 33 for others. 

India Today-Axis My India has predicted that the NDA will outperform its 2019 tally. It expects the saffron alliance to win 361-401 seats with a vote share of 47 percent and 131-166 for the INDIA bloc with 39 percent votes.

Jan Ki Baat, led by Pradeep Bhandari, expects the NDA to win 377 seats, including the BJP’s 352, with a vote share of 50 percent. It expects the Congress-led INDIA alliance to have 151 MPs in the house, with a vote share of 35 percent and the Congress’ seat tally to remain the same at 52.

News24-Today’s Chanakya has predicted 400 seats for the NDA and 107 for the INDIA bloc.

Republic Bharat-Matrize and Republic TV-P MARQ expect the NDA to emerge victorious in more than 350 seats against the UPA’s 118-154. Matrize has given the NDA 353-368 seats against P MARQ’s 359.

ABP News-C Voter has predicted 353-383 seats for the NDA and 152-182 for the INDIA bloc. On the other hand, it expects the opposition’s grand alliance to bag 152-182 seats.

Other pollsters have predicted similar numbers for the NDA: India News-D Dyanmics has put the figure at 371, India TV-CNX at 371-401, News Nation expects the NDA to land 342-378 seats, and Times Now-ETG has predicted 358 for the BJP-led alliance.

Dainik Bhaskar, however, has predicted the lowest number of seats for the NDA. It expects the NDA to win 281-350 seats against the INDIA bloc’s 145-201.

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