‘Silence of Dalits’, ‘unreliable’ answers: Why pollsters thought they got it wrong

Some exit polls hit the bull’s eye. Others get the results partly right. But today was neither of them.

In fact, it was so bad that Axis My India MD Pradeep Gupta broke down after being grilled during a live show on India Today – a dramatic shift from his dances with the network’s anchors on previous result days. Only yesterday, Gupta had boasted about Axis My India’s track record. Of the 69 elections his agency polled over a decade, he had got just four wrong – that score is now five.

If it was any consolation, journalist Rajdeep Sardesai said, “It’s not only you. Let’s be honest. All exit pollsters need to introspect… That’s (poll predictions) terrible.” 

Were they? Let’s see all the major exit poll predictions.

All but one overestimated NDA count

By 5 pm, NDA was inching closer to 300 mark while INDIA was leading in 231 seats. While the BJP was leading on 240 seats, it will have to rely on coalition partners to form the government. In the house of 543 Lok Sabha members, absolute majority is at 273.

The average of all 12 exit polls showed that NDA would bag 365 seats against INDIA’s 146 and 32 for others, according to NDTV’s poll of exit polls.

Dainik Bhaskar was the only one that could get NDA’s seat right but not INDIA’s. It predicted NDA to win 281-350 constituencies and 145-201 for INDIA. Among all exit polls, it gave “others” the second highest number of seats (33-49) after Republic Bharat-Matrize’s 43-48.

The other 11 exit poll results missed the mark by a huge margin. 

At least three (India Today-Axis My India, India TV-CNX and News 24-Today’s Chanakya) predicted that the NDA would touch the fabled 400 mark. 

Axis was 69 seats off its lower end prediction of 361 for NDA. It gave a maximum of 401 to the ruling coalition. It expected INDIA to bag 131-166 seats – 66 off the higher end.

ABP News-C Voter claimed 353-383 seats for NDA led by PM Narendra Modi and 152-182 for INDIA spearheaded by Rahul Gandhi.

The gap in News 24-Today’s Chankaya’s prediction and actual results was as big as 107 seats for NDA. It claimed 400 seats for NDA and 107 for INDIA.

Axis cites Dalits respondents and unreliable respondents for its blunder

Results from Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, and three mid and small sized states like Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab sprung a surprise for the BJP, undercutting its 2014 and 2019 gains. The first three send 168 MPs, or 31 percent of the total, to the Lok Sabha.

As of 6 pm, NDA was leading in 36 seats, including 33 for BJP; the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party in 37 and its partner Congress in six in Uttar Pradesh – a state with the most number of constituencies. In the last general elections, BJP had won 62 of the total 80 seats.

In West Bengal with a total of 40 constituencies, TMC improved its 2019 performance of 22 seats while BJP is on the decline. The Mamata Banerjee-led party was leading in 29 seats against BJP’s 12 and Congress’s one.

In Maharashtra, where two regional parties imploded, INDIA alliance is in the driver’s seat. INDIA was leading in 29 seats, including 13 for the Congress, and NDA in 18 and one for independent. Of the NDA’s share, BJP was ahead in 10 constituencies.

Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab were other states where pollsters were embarrassed.

At India Today’s studio, Sardesai counted half a dozen states where Axis could not predict the results. In fact, it was nowhere close.

Axis expected NDA to sweep 64-67 seats and gave INDIA 8 to 12 in UP. In Maharashtra, it gave 29 to 34 seats to NDA, including 20-22 for the BJP, and 15 to 20 for INDIA. BJP seems to be winning only half of the predicted score, and the Congress four times more. In West Bengal, Axis gave a huge lead to BJP with 26-31 seats against TMC’s 11-14.

When asked about the reason for the “faux pas”, especially in Uttar Pradesh, Axis MD Pradeep Gupta said that it could not poll many Dalits as they “generally don’t speak”.

Rahul Kanwal differed with the explanation. “I don’t think you can give the excuse that Dalits don’t speak.”

Sardesai too would have none of it. “Maybe pollsters need to look at that (caste churning) and can’t say that so and so is not speaking,” he told Gupta.

The new caste churning Sardesai referred to was how the Dalits and Yadavs united behind INDIA. 

The new formation defies the age-old logic that Dalits, considered a vote bank of BSP chief Mayawati, would stay clear of her rival Samajwadi Party, which attracts Yadav votes. Gupta said Dalits voted for INDIA due to the Congress.

For West Bengal’s blunder, Gupta blamed the unreliability of voters in answering pollsters’ questions.

Before Gupta appeared on the TV, in reference to Bengal’s results, Sardesai said: “I kept telling Guptaji: ‘please poll more women voters’.”

Sardesai and Rahul Kanwal lauded Gupta for unabashedly explaining the reasons for the blunder – not many would have dared to show up for a grilling on live television after wrong predictions.

Gupta’s Axis also got predictions for Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan wrong. 

As the day progressed and it became clear that NDA’s might not match Axis’ exit poll, it removed its prediction from its website.

As a course-correction measure, Gupta said he would deploy his senior team in UP from next time.

In an article published on online news portal Moneycontrol on April 18, Gupta said NDA had “zero chance” of improving its 2019 tally or in fact would lose some in 13 states and UTs, including Maharashtra, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Haryana. Gupta reposted the article and then deleted it. Around the same time, an opinion poll allegedly by Axis was doing the rounds on social media, giving NDA 243-254 seats and INDIA 232-242. Gupta distanced himself from the opinion poll, and called it “misleading” and “illegal”. 

What C-Voter got wrong

C-Voter’s exit poll was no different. It predicted 62-64 seats for NDA and 15-17 for INDIA in UP. In Maharashtra, it expected INDIA (23-25) and NDA (22-26) to win a similar number of seats. It claimed that BJP would win 23-27 seats against TMC’s 13-17.

It forecast only two to four seats of the total 25 for INDIA in Rajasthan – it was ahead in 11.

News24-Today’s Chanakya expected NDA to win 33 seats – 15 seats more than what the results show – and 15 for INDIA in Maharashtra. In UP, it expected NDA to win 68 seats, leaving behind only 12 for INDIA. In West Bengal, it forecast 24 seats for the BJP and 17 for TMC.

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