Editorials point to need for stricter norms for pollsters, message from India

Exit polls have bit the dust with the performance of the BJP-led NDA being far below the forecast and the INDIA bloc touching a tally of nearly 230. It was also a traumatic Tuesday for markets, which tanked a day after a surge linked to investor confidence about a government with a comfortable majority.

The only part that most pollsters seemed to be right about was that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will get a third term in power. But editorials in several prominent papers noted how the BJP has been sent a message – to “change some aspects of its behaviour and policies” – as much as they took note of the possibility of business interests being linked to exit poll predictions. 

The Indian Express, for example, noted that it is only natural for questions to be raised, “more so when they have shown the power to move markets”. 

“Stricter disclosure norms regarding the funding of these organisations and surveys also need to be put in place. There is a collateral damage that such surveys have in times when large sections of TV media are seen as megaphones of those in power and have lost their credibility. Their alignment with the exit polls puts another question mark on their reputation. Their performance in this election should prompt soul-searching among pollsters. The absence of convincing answers will only lend credence to conspiracy theories that question their motives. They must go back to the drawing board. After such a drubbing, they must answer tough questions to continue to be taken seriously.”

The Hindu noted that the 2024 elections turned out to be proof yet again of the vitality of India’s democracy and its electoral system, and the ECI deserves credit. “An issue that requires the attention of the ECI and the government is the function of exit polls. The speculative hysteria that it generates ahead of the actual results is hardly an innocent sport. Exit polls could influence stock markets, for one, and many of the channels have business interests and are heavily invested in the markets.”

The paper also pointed out that the verdict cannot be clearer than this –  “it wants the BJP to be more conciliatory and less confrontational towards the political aspirations of various communities and regions of India”. “The overwhelming charisma and style of Mr. Modi served the party well in 2014 and 2019, but the same factors were corroding the party’s organisational strengths and withering its regional and local leadership. These factors, and the accumulated anti-incumbency of two terms, caught up with the BJP. Still, that it won a third term, though in alliance, is remarkable.” 

The Telegraph’s editorial said, “The poll pundits had spoken first. The people of India spoke next, silencing their punditry.”

“And the message from the aam aadmi has been one against hubris and arrogance that have undoubtedly been features of Mr Modi’s style of functioning. Ordinary Indians have reminded Mr Modi that making tall claims — his shrill war cry of chaar sau paar is an example — without meeting the basic needs of the common man would not go unpunished at the hustings. Bread and butter issues — unemployment, rise in prices, et al — have trumped the ruse of polarisation, division and religiosity that the BJP sought to employ to reap electoral dividends. Uttar Pradesh, which turned all poll projections on their heads, best captures this trend. The BJP and its allies had hoped that they would be able to gain electorally after the inauguration of the Ram mandir. Yet, the Samajwadi Party and the Congress, fighting together on the plank of livelihood and economic issues, punctured their principal rival’s vote. Parts of Maharashtra, Punjab, Rajasthan, and Haryana, to a certain extent, states that have been witnessing distress among agrarian communities, citizens dependent on jobs in the army as well as socially disadvantaged groups anxious about the future of the reservation policy, have expressed their disapproval for the BJP’s policies and political antics.”

Hindustan Times noted that the results “suggest that India (the country, not the alliance) is sending the BJP a message, with the numbers indicating that while the majority still believes in the party, people would like it to change some aspects of its behaviour and policies”.

“A quick note on the Congress and the Opposition, especially the TMC and the SP. The first has reinvented itself; the second has staved off a challenge from what seemed like a superior force; and the third has perhaps set the template for post-Mandal social justice parties — and each of these perhaps warrants a separate editorial (and will get one, over the next few days).”

In another editorial on the day of the last phase of the elections, the paper said the “exit polls will suggest the likely winner when the votes are counted Tuesday, although they have been wrong in the past”. “Coarseness of the campaign, dog whistles, a limping Election  Commission – there is a lot for all the stakeholders to reflect on,” read the strap.

The Times of India had no specific comment on the exit polls but said that “an election where the outcome was widely held to be a foregone conclusion, has given a result with many surprises, overturning many assumptions”. 

It listed some takeaways from the verdict, saying that they were quite unexpected in 2024 even though they were not brand new. These were the end of exceptionalism, the relevance of allies, the coherence of messaging and reality, INDIA bloc’s tactical shrewdness, and welfare and jobs.

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