Exit polls lose again: BJP hat-trick in Haryana, NC-Cong win J&K

The exit polls were wildly off the mark once again.

In Haryana, the BJP is headed for a third term in power with 48 seats while the Congress is leading in 37 assembly segments, as per trends at the time of writing this report. In Jammu and Kashmir, the National Conference has won 42 seats while the BJP secured 29 victories.

In both Haryana as well as J&K, a party needs at least 46 seats to form the government in the 90-member assembly. While the BJP is likely to form the government on its own in Haryana, the NC will require its alliance partner Congress’s six MLAs to stake claim to power.

The most inaccurate estimates ahead of counting day came through Axis My India.

Axis My India got it wrong for both Haryana and J&K. In Haryana, it had predicted a clear majority for the Congress with 53 to 65 seats and 18 to 28 seats for the BJP. In J&K, it had predicted a hung assembly, with the NC-Congress combine likely to win 35 to 45 seats, the BJP to win around 24 to 34, the PDP anywhere from four to six segments, and others likely to bag eight to 27 seats.

Republic TV-Matrize pegged the Congress tally at 55 to 62, and the BJP’s at 18 to 24, while Republic TV P-Marq predicted 51 to 61 seats for the Congress and 27 to 35 seats for the BJP for Haryana. The Republic TV-Gulistan News predicted a BJP-NC cliffhanger in J&K, with 28 to 30 seats for the BJP, 31 to 36 likely for the Congress-NC alliance and five to seven seats for the PDP.

Dhruv Research suggested that the BJP is likely to get 22-32 seats and the Congress and its allies are set to get 50-64 seats in Haryana.   

The other estimates

Meanwhile, Dainik Bhaskar had suggested that the Congress will win 44 to 54 seats in Haryana and the BJP will get 19 to 29. For J&K, it gave 35 to 40 seats for the Congress-NC, 20 to 25 to the BJP and four to seven to the PDP.

For Haryana, the others who had predictions way off the mark were India Today-CVoter, and the Peoples’ Pulse. India Today-CVoter predicted 50-58 seats for Congress and 20-28 seats for the BJP, while the Peoples’ Pulse exit poll gave 49 to 61 seats for the Congress and 20 to 32 seats for the BJP. 

While all estimates were far from the numbers in Haryana, some got it close to the actual tally in Jammu and Kashmir.

India Today-CVoter, closest to the actual figures, predicted 40 to 48 seats for the Congress and NC, with 27 to 32 seats for the BJP, and six to 12 seats for the PDP. The People's Pulse exit poll suggested that the Congress-NC will get 46 to 50 seats, the BJP will secure 23 to 27 seats, and the PDP will get seven to 11 seats. 

JJP shocker; AAP opens account in J&K, no seats in Haryana 

The JJP, which had emerged as a kingmaker in the last elections, failed to open its account in Haryana. Its popular leader and incumbent Uchana Kalan MLA Dushyant Singh Chautala only managed to secure over 7,000 votes. The constituency was narrowly trumped by BJP’s Devender Chattar after a tough contest against Congress’s Brijendra Singh. 

Meanwhile, the INLD had secured only one seat till 5.30 pm. Former deputy Prime Minister Devi Lal’s kin Aditya Devilal won from Dabwali by over 600 votes, while Arjun Chautala, from the same family, was leading from Rania. The party’s popular leader, Abhay Chautala, lost from Ellenabad by over 15,000 votes. 

In other prominent contests, Olympian-turned-wrestler Vinesh Phogat won from Julana constituency, ending the Congress’s long streak of defeats. Aditya Surjewala, son of Congress leader Randeep Singh Surjewala, defeated BJP veteran Leela Ram in Kaithal. Incumbent Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini won in Kurukshetra against incumbent Congress MLA Mewa Singh. Independent candidate Savitri Jindal, who is also the mother of businessman and BJP MP Naveen Jindal, secured Hisar. Meanwhile, former CM and Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda won from Garhi Simpla Kiloi by over 71,000 votes. 

In Jammu and Kashmir, the AAP opened its account, with Mehraj Malik securing Doda constituency. The party failed to win any seats in Haryana. 

The National Conference emerged as the biggest party, and both the Congress and the PDP secured less than 10 seats.   

Among key political figures, NC’s Omar Abdullah won Budgam by over 1.5 lakh votes, while Iltija Mufti, PDP newcomer and daughter of Mehbooba Mufti, lost in Srigufwara-Bijbehara. 

The BJP’s Shagun Parihar and Dr Bharat Bhushan won in Kishtwar and Kathua, respectively. However, state party president Ravinder Raina lost in Nowshera. The party’s Mushtaq Bukhari was also defeated by Congress rebel and independent candidate Choudhary Mohammed Akram in Surankote. 

Among others, Jammu and Kashmir People Conference’s Sajjad Lone won from Handwara and PDP’s youth leader Waheed Para won from Pulwama against Jamaat-e-Islami linked independent candidate Talat Majeed. While Khurshid Ahmad Sheikh, brother of MP Engineer Rashid, won from Langate, their Awami Ittehad Party failed to create any major impact on the overall results. 

Aijaz Ahmad Guroo, brother of Afzal Guru, who was contesting from Sopore, also lost to NC’s Irshad Rasool Kar.

Newslaundry was on the ground, reporting on issues close to the voter’s heart. Check out our coverage here. And if you like the work we did, help power Sreenivasan Jain’s show.