Inflation, crime, conservative values: How Democrats fumbled the immigrant vote

Donald Trump is poised to be the next president of the United States, bringing to an end an election that was framed as a stark choice between tyranny and democracy. 

But on the ground, it seems far more nuanced. In the days leading up to November 6, I spoke to people across Washington, DC, each navigating a web of daily struggles, concerns and aspirations that resist simple categorisation. Many are deeply divided, torn between a party that embodies a disturbing embrace of racial and economic hierarchy, and another that speaks a language of inclusivity and justice but often fails to live up to those ideals.

The result, therefore, isn’t a simple binary. It’s a complex landscape where voters weigh promises against realities, values against pragmatism.

In America’s capital city, I found a population that, while outwardly warm and friendly, often keeps interactions with strangers at a cordial but superficial level. The exception to this pattern were the handful of immigrants who engaged with me with awareness, clarity and a sense of despair. This dialogue offered me a window into the ways in which those outside the mainstream perceive the nation’s promises and contradictions.

In a city seen as a liberal bubble, nearly all the immigrants I spoke with had decided to vote for Donald Trump. Their reasons varied, yet a common theme emerged – a weariness with the prevailing political orthodoxy which, in their view, had fallen short of addressing their hopes and ambitions. 

To them, Trump represented a stark alternative, a departure from the established order that had, over time, fostered a sense of disillusionment. 

Rising costs and crime rates 

The most cited reason for this disillusionment with the Democrats was inflation.

From diapers to condos, the rising cost of living has outpaced wage growth leaving many, especially low-income immigrants, feeling the pinch. Among them is Nosratollah, an immigrant from Iran, who spent 15 years driving for Uber in San Francisco. He moved to Washington, DC earlier this year, driven away by unbearable rental prices and gas costs in California (now nearly $5 a gallon, or Rs 110 per litre, which is just slightly more than in India). 

Nosratollah said these price hikes cut his disposable income by nearly 30 percent since the start of the pandemic. His experience reflects a broader sentiment among immigrants who feel that current economic policies have failed to address their needs. 

In Washington, DC, inflation has intersected with intensified gentrification. Once affectionately dubbed the “chocolate city” for its predominantly Black population, this demographic has declined to 41 percent from approximately 70 percent in the 1970s. 

Historically Black neighbourhoods have undergone significant change, most notably in Navy Yard, an area once home to affordable housing and prominent figures like Marvin Gaye. Today, it’s dominated by high-rise condos where developers charge over $4,000 a month for rent. The Wharf, next to the Navy Yard, once home to the city’s thriving fishing industry, is now dotted with high-end restaurants catering to yuppies. 

Kenilworth is seeing a steady influx of white residents driving up housing prices and displacing long-time families. Leo, a cook and the only employee at the historic Mary’s Place diner, told me he observed these changes firsthand. When he moved to the area 15 years ago from China, housing was affordable. Today, the average home costs around $500,000 – nearly four times what it once did. Leo pooled resources with his sister, brother-in-law and uncle to buy a house last year but rising input costs have strained his business. 

Yet he’s hesitant to raise prices given the financial challenges of his long-term local clients. Leo is hopeful that a new luxury condo opening across the street will bring in more foot traffic, potentially allowing him to adjust prices in line with inflation. 

These anecdotes find firm grounding in data. Since 2020, the US dollar has undergone an inflationary increase at an average rate of 5.05 percent per year. Goods and services obtained at $100 today would have cost $82 four years ago, implying an 18 percent diminution in the dollar’s purchasing power. 

Another concern is crime. 

America today might be safer than it was two decades ago, but the steady decline in crime rates observed since the 1990s began to reverse after 2014. Immigrants told me that since the pandemic, they’re worried that crime is on the rise. Much of this resurgence has been perceived to be concentrated in urban areas, often under Democratic leadership. 

Take San Francisco, for example. In November 2014, California voters sanctioned Proposition 47, or the Safe Neighborhoods and Schools Act. It promised a lot – it aimed to reclassify non-violent offences involving less than $950 from felonies to misdemeanours. Savings from reduced incarceration costs would be redirected towards rehabilitation efforts. It also effectively decriminalised the possession of all drugs. 

Prop 47 was heralded by prominent politicians, including then Attorney-General Kamala Harris. But its outcomes have arguably been disastrous. Overdose-related fatalities have surged, claiming 810 lives in 2023 as against under 200 before the law’s enactment. Shoplifting has proliferated with footage of organised thefts flooding social media. Parts of the downtown lie deserted, with livelihoods, such as that of Nosratollah, left vulnerable as the local economy suffers.

San Francisco may be an extreme case, but similar issues are evident in other major American cities, fueling a wider narrative of urban decline. Former President Trump has tapped into this sentiment, portraying New York as a city in decline, labelling Milwaukee as horrible, and describing Philadelphia as ravaged by bloodshed and violence. He has also warned that "the whole country will be like Detroit" if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election.

Hypocrisy vs authenticity 

A recurring theme among the immigrants I spoke with was their profound disillusionment with what they perceived as the Democrats’ “hypocrisy”. 

Here was a party that had branded itself as liberal on immigration. Yet it presided over deportations with a disturbing resolve. Barack Obama, a president who inspired many with promises of hope, ended up deporting more immigrants than any of his predecessors or successors – a record that included individuals without criminal backgrounds. 

The Democrats had positioned themselves as the party of peace, but prolonged America’s entanglement in Afghanistan, intervened in Libya and Syria with tragic consequences, and have now allocated billions in military aid to Ukraine, even if there is some legal and moral justification for it. Most distressingly, and with great moral consequence, the Democrats have armed and supported the perpetrators of a genocide in Palestine. 

Furthermore, Democrats self-identify as champions of the working class but are deeply enmeshed with corporate influences, whose substantial financial support invariably shapes party decisions. For immigrants, the word “hypocrisy” falls short in capturing their sentiments. The German term “heuchler” – someone who outwardly proclaims moral values while privately guided by Machiavellian self-interest – might do better.

Importantly, many immigrants have conservative values that they do not find reflected in Democratic policy. Lula, originally from Ethiopia and the mother to a four-year-old boy, told me the Democrats’ promotion of social change is at odds with her traditional values with respect to issues like homosexuality. She’s drawn to policies that she thinks will protect her family’s values and provide for a more stable society aligned with her beliefs. 

Juan, a Peruvian, told me many South American immigrants associate the Democratic Party with socialist policies they’d sought to escape in their home countries. This association, he said, drives a preference for a party that’s perceived to promote free market principles and individual liberties. Similarly, Indian immigrants, who are likely to be “upper” castes, lean towards conservative viewpoints.

Many of these immigrants see Donald Trump as offering straightforward, seemingly morally unambiguous solutions. His tenure saw lower inflation rates, earning him goodwill and credit for economic management. His stance on law enforcement – advocating for a revitalised police force following intense scrutiny after George Floyd’s murder – resonates with those concerned about rising crime. Notably, Trump was the first president in recent times to not involve the US in new military conflicts, appealing to those weary of prolonged international entanglements. 

But most compelling for these individuals is his direct manner of communication. Despite inconsistencies, Trump’s unfiltered speech is perceived as candid, free from the constraints of political correctness, providing a sense of authenticity they find lacking in other politicians. 

Now, for many immigrants, supporting Trump entails grappling with contradictions between their conservative beliefs, their disillusionment with the political orthodoxy, and the president’s openly hostile rhetoric towards immigrants and minorities. 

Lula, for instance, finds Trump’s attitude towards immigrants hurtful and unsettling, but she ultimately places her conservative values above the racism she sees in his policies and comments. 

Juan, whose father served as an admiral in the Peruvian navy, graduated from the US Naval Academy in the same class as John McCain. Thus he harbours deep resentment towards Trump’s disparaging remarks about McCain, a figure he deeply respects. Yet Juan acknowledges that personally, life felt more stable under a Trump administration.

Then there’s Raul, a Cuban immigrant standing in front of the Capitol. His English is limited but he supports Trump, seeing him as the polar opposite of the regime he fled in Cuba. For Raul, Trump’s blunt manner and hardline stance represent a repudiation of political repression. 

America has always been a land built by immigrants, from the industrial surge of the early 20th century to the tech-driven economy of today. Waves of newcomers have contributed to its growth, fuelling its economy and enriching its culture. But for many immigrants now, the Democrats – especially under leaders like Kamala Harris, who is often seen as an extension of Obama’s legacy – seem increasingly out of touch with their aspirations. To them, if the party hopes to uphold its identity as a coalition of diverse interests, it must commit to addressing the challenges they face with sincerity and integrity. As things stand now, they see the Democrats as professing inclusive values while sidestepping the realities of the people they claim to represent.

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